Democrats increased their voter registration edge over Republicans more than three fold since the 2016 election and now hold a 104,000 advantage in party registration. At the start of October, the split among registered voters stood at 30% Democrat, or 1,215,277 voters, and 27% Republican, or 1,111,615 voters.
The growing gap in registrations is accelerated by the changing demographics of the state, which has become younger in recent years. “Young, diverse kids are turning 18 every day and know what side they’re on,” said Ian Silverii, executive director of ProgressNow Colorado, a liberal group.
Political observers expect the gap in votes cast between the two major parties to close as the election nears. Republicans may have been more cautious about voting by mail after President Trump falsely claimed the system was ripe for fraud, and they are waiting to drop off their ballots or vote in person.
“We’ll probably see Republicans make up some ground,” said Engen, the Republican analyst, who expects between 3.2 million and 3.5 million Coloradans to vote this year.
David Pourshoushtari, a Colorado Democratic Party spokesman, said he was also anticipating Republicans would make up part of the deficit. “We expect that the gap will close at some point,” he said.
Even if Republicans reduce the margin — and an analysis by Engen suggested it’s starting to happen — it’s unlikely they can overcome the significant advantage Democrats currently hold, analysts said.
Some Democratic analysts believe they have another advantage should Republicans close the gap: unaffiliated voters.
The number of unaffiliated voters has grown by nearly 367,000 over the last decade. This voting bloc splits 60% to 40% in favor of Democrats, based on prior election data.
Many of them are more progressive than the Democratic Party, said Winger, the Magellan strategist, and as a whole, the group is “tipping the scales in favor of Democrats.”
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