When Denver residents voted in Mike Johnston as their next mayor, they knew exactly what they were getting: A smooth talker.
So it should come as no surprise, then, that in his first year of office Johnston appears likely to write the first big check that his bank account can’t cash: Housing 1,000 unhoused people by the end of 2023.
To be clear, Johnston’s promise would be amazing if it were possible. There’s just one tiny, itsy bitsy little problem: It seems to be a big, fat lie.
All right, so perhaps “lie” is a bit harsh. Let’s call it misleading. Extremely misleading. Like super duper, I can see your pants on fire all the way from Boulder kind of misleading. Why? Because metrics matter. They define success, or in this case, the lack of it as Johnston has put an asterisk on just about every metric of housing unhoused people possible.
Take for example Johnston’s use of the word “house.” No average person thinks he means house as in to put a roof over someone for only 14 days. Yet that is one “housing outcome” that’s possible under the mayor’s current plan.
Unhoused people who are taken off the street and put in a shelter of any kind, including another person’s couch, floor and so on, are marked as a success toward the 1,000-person goal — even if they knowingly wind up back on the street by day 15.
And while we’re at it, let’s talk about that 1,000-person goal. Again, the average person would assume this means 1,000 different people. Except it’s not clear that’s the case, either. According to the city’s dashboard, “Duplication can occur in the results when multiple outcomes are reported for the same individual within the reporting period.”
For obvious reasons, this should raise some red flags. It suggests the city’s tracking could include repeat “housing outcomes” that might undermine the overall 1,000 target. For example, how do we know the city wouldn’t recount an unhoused person who is housed for 14 days and who, after returning to the streets, winds up temporarily housed again?
As far as I can tell, we don’t, meaning some portion of Johnston’s goal is likely little more than a performative public display for him to convince you of his political success.
There’s more. Two additional aspects of Johnston’s goal prove elusive. First, tracking of how many people are displaced from shelters during this process does not appear to be readily available. Given we already know of at least some locals who were removed from housing to make room for others, this is important.
Housing some people while unhousing others clearly doesn’t equal success. Second, Johnston’s definition of “housing outcomes” is still set below federal housing standards, so how is that working toward the ultimate goal of ending homelessness?
So here we are. We’re closing in on the end of 2023 and more than half of the 1,000-person goal remains. At best, question marks abound. At worst, the efforts have been marred by mini-scandal after mini-scandal. It’s an inauspicious start for any new mayor, but particularly one who won without resounding support.
To be fair, it’s possible that Johnston could still make significant strides toward reducing homelessness in Denver. With the bulk of his term still in front of him, substantially reducing homelessness within four years is on the table.
As they say, where there’s will there’s a way, and there’s lots of public interest in the topic now. In this journey, I wish Johnston well. We all should.
Just make no mistake: If at the end of this year, Johnston claims victory on homelessness goals, rest assured it is far more likely to be by political spin than by actual success, and we’ll be none the better for it.
Trish Zornio is a scientist, lecturer and writer who has worked at some of the nation’s top universities and hospitals. She’s an avid rock climber and was a 2020 candidate for the U.S. Senate in Colorado.
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