After much research, some self-reflection (the best kind of reflection, by the way) and a very long lunch, I have finally come to a conclusion about Proposition HH, the convoluted property-tax package on the November ballot.
So, here goes: The best way to think about Proposition HH, I’ve decided, is to not think about it at all. If you do, it will only make your head hurt. In fact, the more you think about it, the more your head will hurt.
At this point, my head couldn’t hurt more if it had been slammed into by Kareem Jackson.
That can’t surprise anyone who has read any of the many explainers about the law offered up by various Colorado news sites and think tanks. It can’t surprise anyone who has read any of the Proposition HH flyers crowding your mailbox.
And it certainly doesn’t surprise anyone who just wants to be left alone to concentrate fully on the Nuggets’ defense of their NBA title.
The problem is, it matters whether Proposition HH passes or not — no one argues that the measure, if passed, wouldn’t be consequential — and since we still live in a democracy, it’s for us to decide.
It would be one thing if Proposition HH were just complicated. All tax law is complicated. Prop HH is complicated because of math, of course, but it’s also complicated by compromises and hidden agendas and uncertain projections — not unlike most tax law.
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And it’s complicated because big-money interests on both sides claim that the other side is lying to you — about outcomes and about motives.
You know the outline of the proposal. As home prices have skyrocketed, so have property taxes. And if you want to actually stay in your home, the rise in value of your property — if you’re lucky enough to own any — means what can be a crushing financial blow, especially for the many of us who don’t happen to be rich.
And so Jared Polis and the Democratic legislature have put forth a measure that would lower property tax rates, thereby slowing down — but not stopping — anticipated rises over the next 10 years. That would save homeowners money, although there is argument about how much. One thing is certain. If you own an expensive house, it will save you more.
That’s not all Proposition HH would do. It would also allow the state budget to grow by raising the TABOR cap, but also reduce the amount of money that cities and counties, which rely on property taxes for much of their income, would take in. The state makes up some of that money to local governments, but not all of it.
But it would also send hundreds of millions to school districts — which would be the big winner in this contest — while (gasp) taking a sizable bite out of future TABOR refunds.
There’s a lot of other stuff, too, of course. But here are some of the main things to consider. Proposition HH does very little — there’s a tiny boost in renter’s aid, which is just so much decoration — to help the millions of Coloradans who rent and therefore won’t get any cut.
Colorado’s property tax is already low by national standards. There are ways to make further cuts in the rates for those who would be hit hardest by the rise in prices without including multimillion-dollar homes. There are ways to make sure that more of the savings go to renters.
And about TABOR refunds? Most opponents of the bill say it will end TABOR refunds, which, we’re told repeatedly, is what Proposition HH must really be all about. I think we can safely call that fear-mongering. Proposition HH won’t end refunds over the 10-year period. It will reduce them, though.
But TABOR refunds, as you’ll recall, are hit and miss. Some years you get them, some years you don’t. And in any case, what Polis argues is that for most homeowners, they’ll save significantly more on property tax than they’d get in a TABOR refund. Apparently, not everyone agrees.
To help me figure it out, I tuned into a streamed debate on Proposition HH moderated by 9News’s Marshall Zelinger, who did a good job, but let’s say it didn’t help all that much.
Arguing against Proposition HH were Rep. Rose Pugliese, R-Colorado Springs, and conservative advocate Michael Fields of Advance Colorado Action. Field argued that Polis’ numbers were wrong and that it was all an anti-TABOR plot that didn’t do enough to address spiking property taxes. Pugliese basically argued for Polis to call a special session of the legislature, which would go into regular session in January anyway.
On the side of Proposition HH were Polis, of course, and — hold on — Arthur Laffer? Yes, that Arthur Laffer, the inventor of the Laffer Curve, which caught the eye of Ronald Reagan and led to supply-side economics or, as it came to be known, trickle-down economics. Every elected Republican president inevitably calls on Laffer while introducing gigantic tax cuts — mostly for the already rich — that will supposedly pay for themselves while jump-starting the economy.
And this guy — who was awarded the Medal of Freedom by Donald Trump — was arguing on the Democrats’ side? It turns out Laffer is an old Polis family friend, and Polis must have figured he had a famous tax-cutting ally who would say that Proposition HH did, in fact, cut taxes as promised. In fact, Polis, who wants to eliminate the state income tax, and Laffer spent much of their time arguing for more tax cuts.
It was, well, a little puzzling if you were looking for the progressive side of the debate. But the most progressive part of Proposition HH, it turns out, is rarely mentioned, and that’s the money going to public schools. Democrats apparently decided, from some experience, that school funding didn’t sell as well as a property-tax cut.
They’re probably right. You’ve seen Republican opponents try to narrow the issue to reduced TABOR refunds vs. increased government spending, even when much of the money would be spent on public schools.
The funny thing — funnier even than watching Arthur Laffer tag-team with Jared Polis — is that I’d love to have that TABOR refunds vs. schools debate. I’m not saying I’d necessarily win, but I am saying it wouldn’t hurt my head at all.
Mike Littwin has been a columnist for too many years to count. He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow. Sign up for Mike’s newsletter.
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