When I saw national Democrats say they are going all in on Colorado — targeting every Republican-held House seat in the state in the November midterms — I didn’t take it too seriously.
It sounded more like happy talk than a realistic political strategy. If national Democrats were to start spending actual money in the race, say, to unseat Lauren Boebert in the sprawling, deep-red 3rd Congressional District, then I’d be ready to listen.
Meanwhile, it seems like Dems have a wide range of targets nationally more vulnerable than the 3rd and 4th CDs in Colorado, which are both listed as safe Republican seats by the reliable Cook Political Report.
Still, it’s fair to say there is every reason for Democratic optimism, especially when Colorado Republicans are being led by a carnival barker like Victor Marx, who will almost certainly hold down the statewide GOP vote. And the primaries — Melat Kiros upsetting Diana DeGette, Julie Gonzales coming close in her race against John Hickenlooper — showed how much trust we should place in so-called political consensus.
So, why not do a little wishcasting when there is so much momentum on your side?
As you know, the out-of-power party historically picks up seats in the midterms. And you don’t even need much history going for you when the sitting president’s approval ratings are stuck in the mid-30s, when he’s stuck in an unpopular war with no easy way out, when the economy — Donald Trump’s supposed strong suit —seems stuck in an inflationary spiral.
Remind me, how many strikes do you get before you’re out?
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The betting markets are pretty clear. They give Dems even odds to take back the Senate. And they give the Democrats nearly a 90% chance to take back the House. I’d be happy to give those odds myself if I could find a big enough sucker to take the bet.
And yet.
Even though Colorado keeps turning a deeper shade of blue with every election, even though anti-incumbent fever is raging, the Colorado House delegation is still split at 4-4, which is a long way from 8-0.
The 8th CD in suburban Denver is seen as a tossup, but Democrats like their chances for Manny Rutinel to unseat Gabe Evans, who is as vulnerable as any House GOP incumbent.
And the whispers about the 5th CD — the forever-red district encompassing El Paso County — being up for grabs make for a much better call than you might think. Today’s Colorado Springs is not your grandfather’s Colorado Springs and maybe not even your older sister’s Colorado Springs.
National Democrats had already announced they were targeting both of those seats, which makes sense. It puts Republicans on the defensive and could mean a two-seat pickup.
Internal polling released by Jessica Killin, the Democratic nominee in the 5th, shows her to be in a statistical tie with Republican incumbent Jeff Crank. And while it is an internal poll — conducted by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm — Global Strategy has a strong record of accurate polling.
A 6-2 result in favor of the Democrats would be a huge get and insurance for winning back the House in a must-win year. I’m not going to say this is the most important midterm election in U.S. history — I mean, how would I even begin to rank them? — but it is the midterm in which a Democratic victory would give America its best chance to slow Donald Trump’s slide — or is it march? — toward authoritarianism.
And if you want to think even bigger, crack Sun political reporter Jesse Paul observed there are signs — let’s call them inklings — of trouble even for Jeff Hurd in the 4th and Boebert in the 3rd. And that’s not even counting the latest charges against Boebert’s son (which, in my view, shouldn’t count politically against her at all).
But when I was watching Trump’s speech Monday meant to sell his fact-free, lie-filled executive order to limit childhood vaccines, putting children’s lives at actual risk, I kept having this other thought.
It began with the idea that Trump might actually believe in this bogus link between vaccines and autism, as he told us again and again in his speech. It was quite a victory, even if the recommendations end up coming to nothing, for health secretary and anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Has Trump been brain-wormed after all?
That led to another thought: Brain-wormed or not, Trump knows most Americans don’t believe the anti-vax nonsense. Even while faith in the CDC and other medical experts (See: Fauci, Anthony) is declining, polls still show a large majority believing in the efficacy of school-mandated shots.
Trump’s political advisers had suggested that Kennedy stop talking so much about vaccines — given the polling numbers — and lean instead on his MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) campaign against unhealthy foods.
It’s no surprise when Trump ignores advice, but why make this speech now? Why do it when it will only leave harried parents even more stressed as the school year is set to begin? Why make this headline news in the few remaining months leading up to November when everything is seen through the lens of the midterms?
Trump always gets a liar’s discount on his speeches, but did you see him talking about children supposedly taking a soda-bottle’s-worth of vaccines? Apparently, he never took his children to get their shots. I guess he had aides — or one of his wives — for that.
As an example, the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine — which Trump wants to split into three vaccines even though individual doses no longer exist — weighs in at about one-tenth of a teaspoon. In other words, it wouldn’t go very far toward satisfying Trump’s daily Diet Coke fix.
And how about this: Trump claimed the shots taken together “could be quite lethal.” But when taking them separately, he added, even though no one has taken them separately for years, “they’re not at all lethal.”
☀️ MORE FROM MIKE LITTWIN
There’s no evidence to support this crazy idea of lethality, just as there’s no evidence of the autism link, or any evidence of the benefit of taking 11 childhood shots, at intervals, rather than the 17 shots recommended. Then it struck me. Has Trump already given up on the midterms? Could you possibly give this speech thinking it would help influence anyone outside the MAGA cult?
I know he hasn’t completely given up. His strategy of Supreme Court-aided racist gerrymandering certainly took its toll. And he’s still trying to get the Supremes to block mail-in voting.
But here’s what he does know:
He can’t get out of the war. I mean, it’s not like getting out of an airport container cart. And as far as I can tell, he doesn’t even have a strategy to keep the Strait of Hormuz open besides stomping his feet. He can’t bring down gas prices at the pump or he would have. And despite Trump’s protestations, Iran has all the leverage.
Doing the math here, that’s lose, lose, lose, lose.
Which looks, to me anyway, like it adds up to a midterm loser.
Mike Littwin has been a columnist for too many years to count. He has covered Dr. J, four presidential inaugurations, six national conventions and countless brain-numbing speeches in the New Hampshire and Iowa snow. Sign up for Mike’s newsletter.
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