Jessica Killin is no stranger to big risks. After all, she used to jump out of planes for the U.S. Army. But her campaign for Colorado’s 5th Congressional District represents the biggest leap yet.
The congressional district runs from the Pikes Peak to prairies around Peyton and from Palmer Lake down to Wigwam along Interstate 25. It is centered on Colorado Springs, the longtime redoubt and last bastion of Republican political clout in the state. No Democrat has ever held this seat, in any of its redistricted geographic configurations over the years.
To the contrary, Rep. Joel Hefley used to garner about 70% of the vote until he retired in 2007, and his successor, Rep. Doug Lamborn, always finished in the 60s until 2018. The biggest threat to retaining his seat always came from intraparty primaries. In his last three general elections, Lamborn dipped into the mid-to-high 50s, but never made any national lists as a serious target.
When Lamborn retired, Rep. Jeff Crank — who ran and lost twice to Lamborn — won a bruising, but in-the-end comfortable primary against Dave Williams in 2024. The general election felt like an afterthought. Crank easily won, but less easily than any of his predecessors. And an underfunded, unknown Democrat cracked 40% of the vote for the second straight cycle. That came on the heels of Yemi Mobolade, an independent, upsetting former Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams, a Republican, in the 2023 Colorado Springs mayoral race.
Those closing numbers presented an opportunity. Apparently, Killin’s Army instincts and political acumen told her to grab it.
She has outraised Crank by $1.3 million. She has more in the bank. Furthermore, she has been campaigning for months to win her primary as Crank flew back-and-forth to Washington to do … whatever it is the Republican-led Congress pretends to do these days.
More importantly, Killin has been picked up by the tailwinds of a Democratic resurgency created by President Donald Trump. His tariffs have raised costs, his immigration policies have made communities irate, and his war in Iran disgusts people on both sides of the aisle. Even worse, Trump is not on the ballot but Victor Marx is — almost certainly suppressing Republican voter turnout. None of those things will change in the next three months.
That means as the underlying numbers have slowly eroded the riverbank for Republicans, the current political climate rushed down like a flash flood tearing away great chunks and threatening full collapse. And Killin will be there to ride the wave.
She is a multigenerational member of the community, raised by public school educators, and a veteran in Colorado’s most vet-heavy district. She also has the political acumen of congressional chief of staff and connections to high-dollar donors. That is about as good as it gets for Democrats in CD5.
Killin just needed a good poll. And she got it last week. With the primary behind her and less than 100 days on the trail ahead, her campaign released a poll showing her only 1 percentage point behind Crank, 45% to 44%. While any candidate-provided poll must come with a grain of salt, Global Strategy Group, which conducted this poll, has predicted Colorado outcomes as well as anyone in recent years. Absent any poll saying otherwise, there is little reason to believe this is not a real race.
It also confirms what I have said for about a month: The 5th Congressional District will be Colorado’s closest race.
I personally believe in the current environment state Rep. Manny Rutinel will be closer to a double-digit win over U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans than a loss in the 8th Congressional District. While CD3 poses better numbers for Democrats, their candidate leaves more to be desired; Dwayne Romero has raised exponentially less than Killin and knocked off the Dems’ best chance, Alex Kelloff, in the primary. In contrast, retired Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher has been almost as successful in fundraising as Killin, but is tilting at windmills trying to unseat Rep. Lauren Boebert in CD4. It is simply too ruby red, even in a Dem wave election.
That leaves Killin as the best fit between candidate and congressional district (ignoring Rutinel).
The question is, what outside help will she get? Obviously she would like to leverage her connections to draw help from the national party. Unfortunately for Killin, the DNC is in shambles and Republicans hold a massive financial lead among party-aligned committees and super PACs. Even if they prioritize her race, Republicans could easily swamp them if they recognize the danger.
That leaves state and grassroots help. All the airwaves in the world cannot overcome a killer ground game. But will much of that be split among other races, notably the other congressional districts? Will the people who propelled Melat Kiros to office (no, the unaffiliated candidate has no chance of beating her in November) trek down I-25 to help Killin? She is definitely not the kind of candidate who groups like Working Families Party or DSA would ever back in a primary, but if they really believe in their cause they need to understand winning a majority in the House is the only path to actual change. Otherwise they will prove I was right three years ago: They are just the RMGO of the left.
There is little time to answer those questions and even less time to put together the strategy to take advantage. But so far Killin has been able to navigate every twist and turn and seems to be killing it along the way. It would be foolish to doubt her now.
One of the pictures on Killin’s website shows her surrounded by family walking up the notoriously grueling Manitou Incline near Pikes Peak. If she climbs the hill to a victory in November, I bet it will make that hike look like a breeze. But the view may be even better, too.
Mario Nicolais is an attorney and columnist who writes on law enforcement, the legal system, health care and public policy. Follow him on BlueSky: @MarioNicolais.bsky.social.
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