Voters in the Colorado Springs-centered 5th Congressional District may be open to electing a Democrat for the first time, according to a recent poll.
The survey, paid for by Democrat Jessica Killin’s campaign, showed her down just 1 percentage point in mid-July to Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Crank, with 11% of the electorate undecided.
Forty-five percent of those polled said they would support Crank while 44% said they would back Killin.
The poll was conducted from July 16 to July 21 among 450 likely 2026 voters by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm with a strong track record of predicting the outcome of races in Colorado. It had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
The results are the latest indication the 5th District may be in play for Democrats this year, both because of demographic shifts in the Colorado Springs area, long a Republican stronghold, and because of Killin. The Army veteran and the former chief of staff to Doug Emhoff, the husband of former Vice President Kamala Harris, is running for elected office for the first time, but she’s already shown that she’s likely a stronger candidate than the party has ever had before.
Killin’s campaign raised $3.1 million, including more than $500,000 she donated to herself, through the end of June and spent about $1.5 million, starting July with about $1.6 million in the bank.
By comparison, Crank, who is running for his second term, raised about $1.8 million for his reelection bid through the end of June and spent about $900,000, leaving him just shy of $1.5 million to begin July. (He had money left over from the 2024 cycle.)
National Democrats have signaled that the 5th District is on their radar and that they are prepared to spend real money to help Killin if they think she has a real shot — and if they can afford to.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will decide how much to engage in the 5th District this year depending on how their national map develops. Democrats are hoping to flip enough seats to win a majority in the U.S. House.
The deep-pocketed committee spends in districts it thinks it has the best chance of flipping seats and where it thinks it most needs to play defense.
The House Majority PAC, which is tied to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, has already been reserving TV ad time in the Colorado Springs/Pueblo market in the lead-up to Election Day.
A November poll conducted by Global Strategy Group on behalf of Killin’s campaign was the first clear sign that she had a chance at unseating Crank.
The latest poll indicates Killin’s position in the race can be explained by voters getting more familiar with her and because President Donald Trump is disliked by the district’s voters, particularly unaffiliated voters.
The Global Strategy Group survey showed other Democrats are poised to fare well in the district in November. For instance, Attorney General Phil Weiser is leading Republican Victor Marx in the 5th District in the governor’s race, according to the poll.
Democrats have been doing increasingly well in El Paso County in recent years.
In 2016, then-U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colorado Springs, won the district by 31 percentage points. By 2022, his margin of victory had shrunk to 16 percentage points. In 2024, Crank, running to succeed Lamborn after his retirement, won by 14 percentage points over Democrat River Gassen, a first-time candidate who raised little money and effectively had no party assistance.
Trump won El Paso County in 2024 by 10 points, down from 11 points in 2020. In 2016, however, he won the county by a whopping 22 points, even though he lost Colorado that year by about 5 percentage points.
U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet lost El Paso County by 20 points in 2016. But he lost by 9 points in 2022.
The best sign for Democrats in the district is how Gov. Jared Polis has fared in recent election cycles. He lost his first gubernatorial campaign in El Paso County in 2018 by 17 percentage points. In 2022, he lost it by just 4 points.
In 2023, Colorado Springs voters elected Yemi Mobolade, who is unaffiliated, mayor. He beat Republican Wayne Williams, a city councilman and Colorado’s former secretary of state.
The 5th District was created in the 1970s and it has never been represented by a Democrat.