WINTER PARK — When rafting outfitter Ryan Snodgrass talks about the extremely low water levels in the rivers around Winter Park, he sees his financial security floating away.
“We are literally going to scrape through — metaphorically, also — until next year,” said Snodgrass, co-founder of Downstream Adventures Rafting.
He stood next to the Fraser River, just one stop on a state-organized drought tour featuring lawmakers, state officials, water managers, experts and media. As the group bussed around north-central Colorado, they tracked the rippling impacts of drought, ranging from higher requests for financial assistance to wildfire concerns, after a record-low winter that ended a month early.
In Winter Park, the Fraser River was one example. The river was running at 36 cubic feet per second when it should have been closer to 500 cfs or about to peak at over 800 cfs, Snodgrass said.
“Fraser River, right here, this is a very popular recreational run,” he said, referring to the river as it flows from Tabernash to Granby. “Nobody’s going to boat that this year.”
Parts of Colorado were entirely drought-free before this winter, but that started to change as month after month ticked by with sparse snowfall. Then, the nearly notorious March heat wave stole what little snowpack had accumulated in Colorado’s mountains, causing an early melt and runoff.
By late May, nearly all of Colorado, about 94%, was experiencing some level of drought, and about 10% was experiencing the worst drought level identified by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
That’s a big deal: What happens in Colorado’s mountains each winter impacts millions of people within the state and in downstream communities across the nation.
Already, Coloradans are tracking the impacts of this summer’s hot and dry conditions on quality of life, community cultures and economies.
The United States experienced about 26 drought events between 1980 and 2019 that caused at least $1 billion in damage each, and in some cases far more. In total, those droughts cost the nation at least $249 billion, with an average cost of more than $9.6 billion during each event. Only hurricanes were more costly, according to a 2020 report from the National Integrated Drought Information System and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In Winter Park, the poor winter’s economic impacts were quickly visible at Winter Park Resort, one of the community’s main economic drivers.
Skiing is really good when the snow depth at the resort is 50 inches or more, Doug Laraby, planning director for Winter Park Resort, told the gathering of officials on the drought tour early Tuesday morning.
During the first week of February, the snow depth totaled about 30 inches. Some trails — the ones where there were no artificial snow machines — had just 15 inches of snow, he said.
Warm temperatures made it difficult to make their own snow as the winter progressed. Trails that they could normally keep open until April closed in late March. Dirt showed through melting, slushy, late-season snow. Overall, visits dropped by 29%.
Most of that was because day skiers from the Front Range decided not to make the trip. People who chose Winter Park as their vacation destination kept their reservations, Laraby said.
“They still showed up, so we survived,” he said.
Ski patrollers had four days of work each week instead of five. Lift operators, who would normally work 32 hours a week, only had about 20 hours of work.
“Those kids are looking for a paycheck,” Laraby said. “The managers have to tell them there’s no work today.”
The word is out
The employees who typically jump from working ski lifts to guiding rafting trips are moving from one tough situation into another, Snodgrass told the state drought tour as welcome shade from clouds slid over the shallow Fraser River.
Potential employees know Colorado is in a drought, so guides have the option to choose to work elsewhere. Snodgrass isn’t getting as much interest from qualified applicants, he said. With low flows in the rivers, it’s also harder to train inexperienced guides in some of the navigational techniques, like catching eddies.
Snodgrass sees lower flows on all of their normal runs.
Clear Creek was just over 200 cfs Tuesday morning and probably past its peak. It normally peaks in the third week of June at around 1,000 to 1,200 cfs, he said.
The Arkansas River, the most rafted river in the country, was likely past its peak. On Tuesday, it flowed at around 350 cfs at Nathrop. The lowest raftable flow is about 300 cfs, Snodgrass said.
The Colorado River, another reliable run, was also just slightly above its minimum flow for rafting, about 250 cfs, near Kremmling Tuesday.
Customers have been calling with questions about the river conditions — and Snodgrass expects some will change their travel plans.
Downstream Adventures is leaning into inflatable kayak rentals and family trips, where mild flows are more desirable.
“People can still get outside. They can still enjoy the scenery, the wildlife,” he said. “But it’s going to be limited from what it is most years, especially those people who want high-level challenge. They’re not going to get that this year.”
The rivers are low well before the season’s busy period between the last week of June and third week of August. That’s also the biggest revenue period, Snodgrass said.
“So everybody is running at almost the minimum, and we’ve barely started,” he said. “We’re hoping that the Colorado River sustains for us, and we’re able to stay open for business.”
Rippling impacts across the community
Community groups in Winter Park are already tracking the impacts of the skimpy ski season, even as they look at forecasts for an active monsoon season and strong El Niño as a potential source of relief.
The town, located northwest of Denver, depends on foot traffic from Front Range communities. Only about 13% of its dwelling units are occupied by full-time residents. But this year, they didn’t come, Winter Park Mayor Nick Kutrumbos said.
Winter Park has seen 10% growth year over year for about the last decade, excluding the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In April, the town experienced a 37% decrease in sales tax collections, he said.
In town, signs of strain were showing in food, mental health, school tuition and utility assistance programs. Hunger relief requests are up by nearly 14% this year, mirroring an increase in demand at food banks across the Western Slope. Housing assistance requests have risen by 24%. Other communities, like Granby, reported a significant increase in utility assistance requests in neighboring communities, Kutrumbos said, referencing early data collected by the local community foundation.
They’re still waiting for May numbers to get a better sense of the impacts, he said.
Looking ahead, our greatest concern is the cumulative effect of continued drought and low snow pack conditions, Kutrumbos said.
“We can weather the storm for one season, but back-to-back seasons could disrupt our local economy,” he said. “That’s something that, like I said, we simply haven’t seen before.”
Local rafting outfitter Snodgrass said his company is doing the best it can, but they are facing problems that could be difficult to overcome. That’s when he drew a lesson from the rivers themselves.
“That’s part of running rivers: You’re always looking for the way through,” he told the gathering of officials. “Rapids get harder, and you’re looking harder for the way through.”