Low flows on the Arkansas River have rafting outfitters, communities bracing for a rocky summer

With snowpacks in Colorado’s river basins at record lows after the saddest winter ever, the flows in the state’s rivers and streams likely have already peaked. That’s a bummer for the state’s rafting industry, which floats rural economies across Colorado with more than 450,000 rapid-riding visitors a year. 

The weak flows will be especially hard for Colorado’s Upper Arkansas River Valley, the workhorse of the state’s rafting industry. There are about 45 river outfitters in the Arkansas Headwaters Recreation Area between Leadville and Cañon City who host as many as 250,000  commercial rafting visitors every year, almost 75% of them coming from out of state. Those vacationers riding the most rafted river in the country direct anywhere from $50 million to $75 million into the local communities every year. 

The 2026 river season in Colorado is looking grim. The warmest March in Colorado history evaporated an already weak snowpack, leaving the Arkansas River basin at 24% of normal in late May, when the rafting season typically kicks off. The troubling horizon for river recreation harkens to 2002 and 2012, when similarly sad winters reduced the Arkansas to a trickle. In 2002, rafting visitation across the state dropped 68%. In 2012, the number of commercial rafters dropped 21%.

Here’s a quick glimpse of the 10 lowest monthly average flows for July on the Arkansas River at Nathrop since the U.S. Geological Survey started measuring in 1965.

“We are going to adapt” 

Brian Ellis was a raft guide in 2002 on the Arkansas River. That summer, as wildfires raged across the state and rivers dribbled, the Arkansas River rarely climbed above 300 cubic-feet-per-second, or cfs, marking one of the most challenging years ever for the region’s rafting outfitters.

“We still ran trips through Labor Day,” says Ellis, who now owns Wilderness Aware Rafting in Buena Vista. “That was a really rough year that outfitters had to endure. But we learned a lot and honed techniques and skills that we applied again in 2012. This year we’ll be relying on those strategies again.”

The Arkansas River rafting season will happen. It will just be a bit different. There will be fewer paddlers on smaller boats. If guests are ready, they will captain their own stand-up paddleboards or inflatable kayaks, which are called duckies. Trips could take longer. Paddlers in rafts are going to play a larger role, helping guides navigate more technical lines through rapids. Lower sections of the river with more water — like the Royal Gorge — will see more traffic. 

The calls from vacationers are coming in. Demand is there. And outfitters are ready. 

“We are going to adapt. Our guides are going to have great attitudes and people are going to have a great experience,” Ellis said. “We are ready for a good season.”

Colorado rafting days peaked in 2021 as vacationers escaped the pandemic shutdown on the state’s roiling rivers. Visitation that year reached 622,186. Every year since, the statewide tally has fallen, hitting 469,549 in 2025.

No help from the Voluntary Flow Management Program

Since 1990, the innovative Voluntary Flow Management Program has moved 10,000 acre-feet of water from Twin Lakes down to Pueblo Reservoir every summer between July 1 and August 15 with releases timed to float Arkansas River rafts loaded with tourists. That agreement with regional and federal water managers and rafting companies has fostered a vibrant economy around the Arkansas River, enabling a long season of boat-floating flows. 

This year, it’s unlikely there will be any offerings from the Voluntary Flow Management Program, which uses water from the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District’s Fryingpan-Arkansas River project that diverts more than 57,000 acre-feet of water from the Fryingpan River into the Arkansas River drainage for use on the Eastern Slope. 

As those downstream water managers in the Front Range grapple with anemic supplies for cities and agricultural users, this could be the second since 1990 with zero flows from the program. 

“It’s just not going to happen,” says Andy Neinas, the owner of Echo Canyon Rafting on banks of the Arkansas River above the Royal Gorge. “And I need to figure out what voice to use here. As an owner of a rafting company, it’s hard. As a Coloradan, I understand.

“As Coloradans, we have a responsibility to kind of rank our water priorities and right now, I don’t think recreation should be at the top of the list. I don’t think it should be number two. Or three. We need to think about the health and welfare of wildlife, habitat and our food supply. And the rafting industry understands that.”

Neinas was around in 2002 and 2012. And don’t forget 2018, he says, another lean year. Rafting outfitters pivoted in those years. They funneled guests into new fun, like ziplines and adventure courses. They stocked their fleets with smaller boats and trained guides to navigate low-water lines through rapids. The vacationers still had fun, Neinas says. 

“Those were challenging years and we actually did OK,” he says. 

“A last-minute summer”

Outfitters are not just fretting flows this year. They are thinking about the cost of a gallon of gas and a bag of groceries. They are watching global political issues, like the war with Iran. 

“I think people are being more conscientious around how and when they spend,” says Neinas, who’s seeing a lot of lookers on his website but few bookings. “I think people are saying ‘I’ll give you $500, but I might not give it to you today.’ I think we are looking at a last-minute summer.”

The Arkansas Headwaters Recreation Area, or AHRA, spans 5,355 acres along 152 miles of the Arkansas River as it winds through four counties, Forest Service and BLM land, a national monument and private property. The recreation area, managed by Colorado Parks and Wildlife, hosts more than 1.4 million visitors a year and counts the $1.1 million it collects from commercial outfitters as its largest source of annual revenue.  

Room to breathe from the Arkansas Headwaters Recreation Area

This spring, the bosses at AHRA decided to delay preseason permit payments from outfitters, which are based on last summer’s sales. 

“We thought that it would be helpful for the group this year to just wait and see how things flush out,” AHRA manager Tom Waters says. “We anticipate this season will look different so no need to add to their stress right now.”

That decision reflects the uniquely cooperative vibe around the Arkansas River. Rafting company owners have spent decades working with land managers, local communities and typically rigid water managers who are in charge of safeguarding supplies for 1 million people downstream. How that water flows to those downstream cities and 220,000 acres of farmland supports not just hundreds of local businesses but local lifestyles anchored in moving water.

“The recreational infrastructure we have developed on the Ark in tandem with our peers and partners has enabled us to weather seasons like this,” Neinas says.

And not unlike their cohorts in the ski resort industry, the water riders are eternally optimistic. The wild El Niño ahead could bring big rains that can float a lot of boats. 

Don’t forget 1995, says Waters. That was a lean winter and the Arkansas River drainage limped into spring with a meager snowpack. Flows in April that year were well below average and then late-season snowfall and a robust monsoon season slaked a thirsty state. The average flow in July 1995 on the Arkansas River was 3,495 cfs, marking the biggest month ever on the Ark. 

“We are still holding some hope,” Waters says. “There’s a chance.”