Federal and state officials have proposed severe drought response actions, like drastically cutting water releases from Lake Powell, in face of a historically dry year and worsening conditions in the Colorado River Basin.
The Bureau of Reclamation announced Friday it will likely reduce Lake Powell water releases to 6 million acre-feet, the lowest amount in decades. It also intends to release additional water from Flaming Gorge, an upstream reservoir, to help elevate the water level in Lake Powell. The decisions could raise the specter of forced water cuts in states including Colorado, impact endangered fish populations and affect communities and economies.
Basin states, tribes and partners continue to provide feedback on the proposed releases. A final decision will be coming next week, Reclamation said Friday in a news release.
“Given the severity of the risks facing the Colorado River system, it is imperative that we take action quickly to protect a resource that supplies water to 40 million people and supports vital agricultural, hydropower production, tribal, wildlife, and recreational uses across the region,” Andrea Travnicek, Reclamation’s assistant secretary of water and science, said in the news release.
The Colorado River Basin, which stretches from Colorado’s mountains to the Pacific Ocean, saw about a quarter of its typical snowpack this year. The skimpy snowpack also shrank the amount of water flowing into the basin’s two major reservoirs, lakes Mead and Powell, the largest reservoirs in the nation. Lake Powell’s lower probable inflow is forecast to be just 2.78 million acre-feet — 29% of historical average and one of the lowest on record.
Powell held about a quarter of its storage capacity as of a Bureau of Reclamation presentation Friday. Mead held about a third of its capacity. The amount of water stored in federal reservoirs across the basin was just 36% as of Friday.
If the water level at Lake Powell falls too low, it can endanger critical infrastructure in the dam and stop hydroelectric power generation, which helps supply communities across the West with affordable, renewable energy.
The immense reservoir’s water levels are projected to fall below these key points by August, according to a monthly federal forecast released Friday called the 24-month study.
Or it could be as early as June, the Upper Colorado River Commission said in a news release Friday. The commission is a joint body that includes the Upper Basin states, like Colorado, and is a deciding force in Upper Basin water policy.
In response, the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that operates Glen Canyon Dam at Lake Powell, has already held back about 598,000 acre-feet of water to try to maintain higher water levels in the reservoir. (One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two to four urban households.)
That water was scheduled to flow to downstream communities in Arizona, California, Nevada and northern Mexico. The bureau still plans to release it before the water year ends Sept. 30, according to the April 24-month study.
But that is not enough.
To elevate water levels in Lake Powell, Reclamation officials intend to release 660,000 to 1 million acre-feet of additional water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah-Wyoming border. The reservoir was 83% full as of Friday, and the releases over the next 12 months will reduce it to 59% of its capacity.
As of Friday, Reclamation did not plan to release water from two other upstream reservoirs — Blue Mesa, the largest reservoir in Colorado, and Navajo Reservoir on the Colorado-New Mexico border — because of their low water levels and poor forecast inflows.
The bureau also intends to release a total of 6 million acre-feet from Glen Canyon Dam this water year, which began Oct. 1 and will end Sept. 30.
For months, Reclamation has been planning to release a total of 7.48 million acre-feet from the dam. Since 2015, releases have ranged from about 7.08 million acre-feet in 2022 to 9.26 million acre-feet in 2019, according to a 2024 report from the Upper Colorado River Commission.
Reclamation only has limited authority to drop releases to 6 million acre-feet because of a near-term agreement developed in 2024 in response to the basin’s prolonged drought, shrinking flows, overuse and plummeting reservoir levels.
If the feds release 6 million acre-feet of water this year, it could open the door to legal arguments from Lower Basin states calling for upstream states to make forced water cuts.
Lawsuits — often dubbed the nuclear option — could mire the entire basin in years of legal uncertainty and expensive court battles while leaving the basin’s water future in the hands of U.S. Supreme Court justices instead of local and state water managers.
Responses around the basin
Politicians, water officials, environmental groups and other water users are voicing widespread concerns about conditions in the basin.
The shrunken releases from Lake Powell will accelerate declining water levels in Lake Mead, potentially reducing Hoover Dam’s hydropower generating capacity by 40% as early as this fall, Reclamation’s announcement said.
At upstream reservoirs, boating access may be reduced earlier in the season than normal. In the Grand Canyon, lower flow rates will affect rafting conditions, and fishing may be more challenging. At Lake Mead National Recreation Area, reduced water levels may further limit boating access, the bureau said.
In Colorado, cities and water utilities are calling for residents with lawns and gardens to make voluntary water cutbacks. In some cases, they are implementing drought restrictions.
Some environmental advocacy groups, including Western Resource Advocates, are pushing Reclamation to time releases to mimic natural conditions to benefit native and endangered fish and other aquatic species if they have to make releases from upstream reservoirs.
There are endangered fish in the Green River below Flaming Gorge that could benefit if the drought response releases replicate the natural surge of water during spring runoff.
“The water is going to Powell regardless, so let’s do it in a way that actually provides some benefit along the way,” said John Berggren, WRA’s regional policy manager for the healthy rivers department.
In a joint statement earlier this month, governors from the four Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — said their states are actively cutting off water users, like farmers and ranchers.
“This is an unprecedented year on the Colorado River, and likely will be one of the worst on record,” governors from four upstream states, including Colorado, said in a news release this month. “A dry year like this reminds us of why it is critical that all who rely on this resource learn to live within its means and adapt our uses accordingly.”
In early April, the governors spoke in favor of releasing water from Flaming Gorge or other upstream reservoirs, as long as the releases comply with existing agreements and reservoirs eventually recover the water they lost because of the drought release.
“We must have a clear understanding of how these proposed releases will effectively protect elevations at Lake Powell,” the governors said. “Once the releases conclude, we expect that all water released from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs will be fully recovered.”
This year’s water challenges come at a time of transition, Reclamation said. The existing agreements that guided Colorado River reservoir operations for 20 years are set to expire this year.
The seven basin states have not reached consensus on a new operating framework, the bureau said.
Without that agreement, the Interior Department, which oversees the bureau, “will be prepared to determine operations for post-2026 later this summer to provide certainty and stability for the Colorado River Basin,” Reclamation said.