With the November election just over two months away, looking past it to an election next year feels premature. That feeling could be fatal for Denver Mayor Mike Johnston’s reelection bid.
Last year Johnston told voters he intended to seek reelection. Three years of work only laid a foundation for his vision of Denver and at least another term would be necessary to follow through on its promise. A few weeks ago, he officially announced his reelection effort.
And that is about it.
Johnston’s team stood-up a skeleton website that includes a one-paragraph intro, a donation button, and sign-up for newsletters. No issues pages at all, much less in-depth policy proposals. No real personal story or detailed list of accomplishments over the past three years. No sense of urgency.
Furthermore, filing only a few weeks ago means that Johnston has yet to get any Fair Election Funds from the city. Under Denver law, candidates participating in the Fair Election Funds program get a 5-to-1 match for contributions they bring into their campaign. In contrast, one of his primary rivals — perennial also-ran Lisa Calderon — has already taken in more than $88,000 in FEF.
That at least gives Calderon, who finished third in 2023’s general election and only 3,000 votes short of a place in that May’s runoff, a significant head start. Given her multiple prior campaigns and connections in the community, that poses a significant threat to Johnston. Failing to address it sooner than later seems like the kind of thing sports fans lament when their favorite franchise falls into a hole too deep to dig out from.
There is a reason the New York Knicks’ Game 4 29-point NBA Finals comeback will live in sports lore forever.
I am sure that Johnston’s team contends that such concern is misplaced. Again, there is a whole election preceding the mayoral race. Furthermore, there are seven months before the April election and nine until a likely June runoff. Traditionally, that would be plenty of time to make his pitch for Denverites to return him to office.
But we do not live in a traditional world anymore. Nor is Johnston operating from the position of strength incumbents often enjoy.
First, there actually is not that much time. The next few months will be dominated by state and national races and the inevitable controversies that will follow. Then the holidays will sap volunteers and pocketbooks alike. It will not be until mid-January or February that the campaign will be able to get its footing.
Second, Johnston’s popularity has dropped precipitously. According to the Colorado Polling Institute, in June 2024, a year into his term, Johnston enjoyed approval from about half of Denver (48%) compared to those who saw him unfavorably (38%). Those numbers have since flipped. Johnston only enjoys 39% approval compared to 50% disapproval.
That means half of his constituents want someone else, a red flag for any officeholder.
Finally, the past year has seen the rise of Democratic Socialists across the country and prominently in Denver. Starting with the shock victory of Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race, candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America won Democratic primaries. Most relevant, Melat Kiros beat 15-term congressional incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette in the June primary.
Kiros took advantage of the national trend and plummeting approval rating for DeGette. The same type of dynamic that makes Johnston vulnerable now. The Venn diagram of voters in the 1st Congressional District and Denver mayoral elections looks like two ever-so-slightly offset circles.
Calderon had the Denver DSA’s support four years ago, before their power surge. Last week, the group chose to endorse current Denver City Councilwoman Shontel Lewis’ campaign for mayor. While the two candidates may syphon votes from each other in the April election, the winner will certainly aggregate that support in the runoff.
Both Calderon and Lewis will benefit from a more concentrated field of candidates.
While the race already includes 10 candidates, it is less than the 16 who appeared on the 2023 ballot. More importantly, that race for an open seat included far more potentially viable candidates.
In addition to Johnston and Calderon, other candidates included chamber of commerce darling Kelly Brough (Johnston’s 2023 runoff opponent), state Sen. Chris Hansen, state Rep. Leslie Herod (whom I worked for), wealthy businessman Andy Rougeot, former Denver councilmember Deb Ortega and progressive activist Ean Tafoya. All had credible paths to city hall.
In 2027, the landscape looks much different. Outside Johnston, Calderon and Lewis, the other candidates represent either retread gadflies who won less than 1% in 2023 (Robert Treta, Aurelio Martinez) or folks with no name ID or identifiable base of support. That means the media coverage will be focused on the big three.
That is bad for Johnston. If he does not win an outright majority in April — something the polling indicates is beyond his grasp — the progressive might of Denver DSA and its allies will aggregate behind his runoff opponent.
Even if Johnston could count on an outside money machine like the one that propelled him to office in 2023 (a big if considering his largest cheerleader, Reid Hoffman, has been linked to Jeffrey Epstein through fundraising efforts and targeted by the Trump Administration), it might not help much. Just ask Alex Vindman, who outspent his DSA-aligned U.S. Senate foe, Cynthia Nixon, 16-to-1 in Florida’s Democratic primary a few weeks ago and still lost.
If Johnston wants to earn a second term, much less a third, he needs to find some urgency right now. Or he’ll end up with a pink slip early next year.
Mario Nicolais is an attorney and columnist who writes on law enforcement, the legal system, health care and public policy. Follow him on BlueSky: @MarioNicolais.bsky.social.
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