When the Colorado River first filled the country’s largest reservoirs decades ago, it ushered in a century of optimism in the West. We planned for abundance. Today, more than 40 million people across seven states, 30 Tribal Nations and two countries rely on this river.
The creation of Lake Mead and Lake Powell promised a future for the driest parts of our country, but that promise was contingent upon wise decision-making. When both reservoirs hit record lows in 2022, it exposed a basic math problem: What flows out to the lower division states of Arizona, California and Nevada cannot exceed what flows in from the upper division states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.
The crisis revealed another tough reality: The Upper Colorado River Basin no longer provides reliably abundant supplies to cushion unsustainable downstream demands. This year brought the worst snowpack on record for Colorado, where 70%-80% of the Colorado River originates. Because we strictly regulate based on available supply, tens of thousands of acres in Colorado will go dry this season.
In 2021, the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe’s farming operation in southwestern Colorado was devastated when it received 10% of its expected water supply. The Tribe was forced to fallow 6,000 acres and lay off workers because state regulators cut them off based on actual water availability.
Reduced use in dry years due to strict regulation is our reality. On average, over the past 20 years, water users across the Upper Basin receive 1.3 million acre-feet less annually than they would use if that water were legally and physically available.
The upper division states have already been making mandatory, uncompensated cuts for decades because there is simply less water in the river. In dry years, state regulators shut off water rights that predate the 1922 Colorado River Compact by decades. The sacrifices of our farmers and ranchers rarely make the news, but have occurred without the billions in payments from the federal government seen in the Lower Basin.
The numbers continue to tell a stark story. In the exceptionally dry year of 2021, the lower division states used around 11 million acre-feet (3.5 trillion gallons) of water, while the upper division states used just 4 million (1.3 trillion gallons). Since the megadrought began in 2000, the upper division states have used about half of our legally apportioned water, while the lower division states routinely used millions more than their apportionment. Data from the Bureau of Reclamation shows that if Lakes Powell and Mead had been managed responsibly and if the Lower Basin had used within their apportionments, the reservoirs would not be in crisis today.
We cannot accept a new set of management rules that deepen hardship for the Upper Basin while allowing unsustainable water use to continue downstream. Water conservation cannot decimate Upper Basin economies to bolster Lower Basin ones. When we use less water, that water flows downstream to be used elsewhere. Colorado and the other upper division states have lived on the front lines of climate change for 25 years; it’s time for the lower division states to do the same.
Instead of making hard decisions, our lower division neighbors seek to continue their unsustainable water deliveries from Lake Mead and threaten destabilizing litigation. While we applaud their commitment to account for 1.25 million acre-feet lost annually to evaporation, this should have been done years ago. Steeper reductions will be needed.
A century ago, the seven states struck a bargain. The 1922 Colorado River Compact promised an “equitable division and apportionment” of this river, apportioning 7.5 million acre-feet to the Upper Basin and 8.5 million to the Lower Basin in perpetuity, including mainstem and tributary uses. The Compact is a promise to share the river, not a blank check for downstream users to drain their savings account and demand more from their cash-strapped neighbor.
The upper division states have responsibly self-managed and proposed a comprehensive framework for the river’s future management. Our plan includes reservoir releases, contributions from our water users, and a sustainable path forward for Lakes Powell and Mead.
Years of negotiations failed to produce a consensus. Additional cuts to Upper Basin uses, which some downstream representatives demand, are physically impossible because the water does not exist. They would impose greater restrictions than we would face after our worst day in court — an unacceptable outcome for Colorado.
Colorado remains steadfast in our commitment to a balanced, supply-based approach that acknowledges the realities of a changing climate. True leadership means making hard decisions today to prevent catastrophic failures tomorrow.
The river isn’t broken — the way it is managed is. Because the Upper Basin does not have massive reservoirs to support our uses, we have already adapted. We are excited for our Lower Basin neighbors to join us.
Becky Mitchell, of Centennial, is Colorado’s commissioner on the Upper Colorado River Commission and is appointed by the governor to represent the state on Colorado River matters.
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