Officials on Colorado’s Drought Task Force are working to identify local drought impacts and vulnerabilities as the group kicks into gear for the first time since 2020 in response to deep drought conditions.
Gov. Jared Polis activated the task force March 16 in the midst of a record-smashing heat wave that ended up triggering rapid melting from the state’s already-low snowpack. The group is flagging issues to watch, like wildfire risk, water shortages for farmers and ranchers, and the ability of small communities to find replacement water if their other supplies aren’t available.
“Colorado ag water users are used to preparing for drought and adjusting accordingly,” said Tracy Kosloff, deputy director of the Colorado Division of Water Resources. “They know that this is our system and they have to adjust. It doesn’t mean they’re not impacted.”
The task force’s main goal is to help reduce the impacts of water shortages on Coloradans, according to the state’s drought response plan. Its members include officials from water-focused state agencies, including the Department of Natural Resources, Colorado Department of Agriculture, the Department of Local Affairs and the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.
Parts of Colorado have been in some level of drought for almost all of the last 25 years, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The task force was previously launched in April 2002, May 2011, May 2018 and June 2020.
The officials collect water supply information, identify needs, guide response resources, help local governments and coordinate between jurisdictions and agencies. In the past, the task force has organized working groups, coordinated drought tours, and developed engagement and resource web pages.
This year, they’re closely tracking changing conditions in the U.S. Drought Monitor, which can influence disaster declarations. These declarations unlock relief programs and resources that Coloradans could need this year, officials said.
“This is an incredibly important part of our statewide response and making sure that we use every tool at our disposal to help every community across the state in need in this really difficult time,” Polis told the task force at the April meeting.
Dashed hopes for a miracle May
The recent rain and snow dropped some much-needed moisture on parts of Colorado, but it won’t last, Russ Schumacher, Colorado’s state climatologist, told the task force members Thursday.
Early May storms brought 2 feet of snow to some higher elevations and up to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of the Eastern Plains and north-central Colorado, like Estes Park and the foothills of Larimer and Boulder counties. The snowfall will boost soil moisture and bump up streamflows, he said.
“Having this big storm the last couple days in much of the state maybe gets our hopes up for a ‘miracle May,’” Schumacher said. “But it doesn’t, unfortunately, look like that is what is going to come about.”
The recent storms also bolstered the snowpack slightly: It’s no longer the record low — but just slightly above. The state’s snowpack is at 26% of median, up from 18%-20% in late April and early May.
“That’s, I guess, cause for some very minor celebration, but is, of course, still way below average,” he said.
Drought conditions are mostly worsening in Colorado. About 96% of the state was experiencing some level of drought, while 18% of the state was in exceptional drought, the most severe category, as of May 5.
The recent precipitation could have provided relief to some areas. This week’s update to the U.S. Drought Monitor will provide a clearer picture, Schumacher said.
What’s next for wildfires?
Fire agencies are saying it’s going to be a busy year. The state usually records about 3,000 to 4,000 fires annually. Already, Colorado has seen around 170 fires this year, said Paul Duarte with the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control.
May is forecast to be close to normal, which means around 20 to 25 fires that have potential to “do something really bad,” he said. Regions of Colorado, like the Western Slope, will start to dry out in June and July, raising the wildfire risk.
Freezing temperatures during the recent storms might have killed some budding plant life. Those freezes could have left prime fire fuel behind, he said.
“We could actually be in worse shape after the moisture than we were before the moisture,” Duarte said.
When Colorado’s landscapes dry out, fires can burn bigger with larger flames and move faster. But the heat can also reach deeper into the soil, harming or killing root systems and causing long-term landscape damage, Duarte said.
The dry conditions also raise the question of how much water is available to fight fire.
“If we don’t take some water from these (reservoirs) that are already depleted to fight a fire, are we going to have a much larger landscape issue?” he said.
Kosloff of the Department of Natural Resources, which manages the state’s water, said they’ve always been able to work with water users, like farmers and ranchers, to shift water supplies to handle emergencies, like wildfires.
“That shouldn’t be a limitation on our fighting fires,” she said. “An emergency is always something we have been able to work out with water users.”
Drastic cuts and a scramble for replacement water
Agricultural water users are working with very low water supplies this year, Kosloff said.
Farmers, ranchers and other water users are already being cut off. Under Colorado water law, people with older “senior” water rights get water first in dry years, while more recent “junior” rights are first to be cut off. Many of the oldest water rights date back to the late 1800s, when the system was established.
In the Arkansas River Basin, which spans southeastern Colorado, the state had to cut off water rights dating back to 1874 because of the drought conditions.
“We haven’t seen that since August of 2002,” Kosloff said. “(And) 2002, many of us know, was a drought year.”
People in the Central Colorado Water Conservancy District, which covers thousands of wells in parts of the Front Range and northeastern Colorado, are at 50% or less of their normal allocations.
In southwestern Colorado, farmers and ranchers who receive water from McPhee Reservoir are at about 13% of their normal water supply.
Some communities relying on small water systems — like small towns and homeowners associations — rely in part on water rights that have been, or could be, shut off this summer. They might struggle to find or provide enough replacement water, she said.
What’s in the forecast?
Looking ahead, the next two weeks will return to warmer and drier weather, Schumacher said.
The amount of water flowing through streams and rivers is going to be below normal. Rivers in Colorado will likely hover between 25% and 40% of average during the usual peak runoff season.
An active monsoon season is in the forecast for late summer. The monsoon storms will likely kick into gear in July, August and September, especially for southern and western Colorado, Schumacher said. And then there’s the issue of thunderstorms, which carry the risk of lightning and hail.
Hail can ruin crops, and lightning is a frequent cause of wildfires.
“A wetter monsoon season does come with more lightning, but also if you have the cloudier days, higher humidity, that’s a good thing,” Schumacher said. “We’ll have to see, that’s still a ways off.”