Colorado’s snowpack is at a record low, and the longer that continues, the harder it will be to make up the deficit before the end of winter, water managers say.
Each year, the accumulation of snow in Colorado’s mountains helps supply Coloradans and millions of people in 19 downstream states with vital water for homes, businesses, farms and more. This year, the state has about 58% of its normal snowpack — the lowest on record for this time of year. Water experts are scoping out valleys and mountaintops, noting the lack of snowpack at low elevations and sparse supply up high.
There’s a lot of winter left, they say, but at this point, the state would need some mega snowstorms to reach an average supply by the time water starts melting off the mountains.
“If you’re looking at weather forecasts, we would need a 4-foot snowstorm to make up the deficit we’re in right now,” said Nathan Elder, manager of water supply for Denver Water, the state’s oldest and largest water provider. “Sometimes those happen in Colorado, but there’s no guarantees.”
In southwestern Colorado, McPhee Reservoir is heading into the summer with little water stored. Far to the north, the river basins are the best in the state. The “best of the worst,” local water managers say. In both places, water users — like communities, farmers and industries — might end up tightening their water belts this summer if conditions don’t turn around.
For Denver Water, which serves about 1.5 million people in Denver and its suburbs, it’s too soon to say whether there will be water use restrictions this summer, Elder said. They’ll know more closer to the annual snowpack peak in late April. But until then, people might want to water their trees and consider long-term investments in more drought-tolerant landscaping.
“It might not be just this year, too. We’re thinking what our reservoirs will look like next March,” Elder said. “Water in Colorado and in the Front Range is really variable, but we know our climate is warming. People should be taking the approach of using the least amount that they can.”
No good news
Colorado’s snowpack officially became the worst on record in mid-January. Meanwhile, temperatures are reaching new highs.
“There’s really not a lot of good news right now,” Goble said. “That’s been my job recently: bearer of bad news.”
Last month marked Colorado’s warmest December since 1895. It was 10.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average, making it closer to Colorado’s normal conditions in March.
Federal measurement stations across Colorado, called SNOTEL stations, have logged record low snowpack levels around Vail Mountain, Fremont Pass north of Leadville and Hoosier Pass south of Breckenridge.
These stations launched in different years, so the “record” can vary from a few years to several decades. (Most of the stations have about 40 to 50 years of data.) Other stations have marked their second- or third-lowest levels of snow-water equivalent, the amount of liquid water in snow, for this time of year, Goble said.
Each of these major river basins has had about half of its normal snowfall by this point in the winter. Yampa-White-Little Snake combined river basin in northwestern Colorado has had the most snow, 70% of the median from 1991 to 2020. That’s still near the lowest end of the spectrum for mid-January.
“We’re far enough into the winter that it starts to become difficult to dig out of these deficits,” Goble said.
Looking at previous dry winters, Goble found that the state received enough snow between January and April to make up this big of a gap 10% of the time, he said.
“It’d take a big year to get us back to normal,” he said.
The northwestern combined basin is part of the larger Colorado River Basin, which spans the Western Slope and extends across six other states and into northern Mexico. If critically dry conditions continue, one of the basin’s massive reservoirs, Lake Powell, could drop so low that it would not be able to generate hydroelectric power by December, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. That would impact cheap, reliable power supplies in the West.
The moderately good news: La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean are still sending precipitation north of the state, but that could change, Goble said.
Snow is in the forecast this weekend, Lucas Boyer, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said. The question is how much will fall in what location, but the odds are good in for the southwestern corner of the state in particular.
“We’re in kind of a spring-fall pattern here in the midst of winter because of the warmer temperatures,” Boyer said.
Keeping an eye on the slopes
That snow will be a welcome reprieve from 50-degree days and dry conditions in southwestern Colorado.
For the Dolores Water Conservancy District, this will be the third tight year in a row. By summer, the district’s major reservoir, McPhee Reservoir, will likely have about 30,000 acre-feet of water remaining from last year. That’s far below the 100,000 acre-feet of carryover water in McPhee in a wet year, said Ken Curtis, the district’s general manager.
“If things don’t change, it’s going to be an extremely dry year on the Dolores water project,” Curtis said.
One acre-foot roughly equals 325,800 gallons of water, or enough to cover a farmer’s one-acre field in one foot of water. Last year, the reservoir held more water heading into the winter, and the local farmers and ranchers still only received about 50% of their normal supply.
“There’s a real chance to be hitting the bottom of the barrel,” he said.
Colorado water managers compared this year to the worst years in recent decades, including 2002, 2012, 2018 and 2021. Those years were marked by massive fires in some parts of the state and a crisis response in the Colorado River Basin.
Denver Water siphons about half of its water supply from the Colorado River Basin, and its water sources on the Western Slope are at about 52% of the normal snowpack. On the other side of the Continental Divide, the high-elevation point that bisects the state, the snowpack is at about 46% of normal, Elder said.
If conditions don’t change, the water provider will launch its emergency management-style drought committee to plan for the summer, he said.
“It’s early January, but it is bad,” Elder said. “All around it’s bad for water supply. It’s bad for the ski resorts that can’t get all the terrain open.”
In northwestern Colorado, Andy Rossi says it doesn’t look good, like the rest of the state. He’s the general manager of the Upper Yampa Water Conservancy District, which owns and operates Yamcolo and Stagecoach reservoirs. Those reservoirs provide a year-round drinking, irrigation and industrial water supply for the local region.
“It’s various degrees of looking down the very serious long barrel of another extended drought year,” Rossi said.
Snowpack maps using SNOTEL stations mainly show snowfall at certain elevations, such as between 9,000 and 11,000 feet, he said. In the lower elevations and valleys, there’s little snow to be seen, he said.
Their management plan: Hang on to every last drop. If dry conditions continue and Yamcolo Reservoir doesn’t fill enough, water users will be looking at water cuts this summer, district staff said.
“We should all remember that all water users in a dry year need to consider some sort of conservation or reduction in use,” Rossi said. “It’s not just one single water-use sector that needs to … try to deal with the drought situation.”