A challenge in government policy is avoiding unintended consequences, policies intended to create a solution that actually make the problem worse.
Prohibition increased alcohol consumption while empowering organized crime. Mandatory minimums intended to “get tough” on sex offenders actually result in lower conviction rates. Policies protecting endangered owls resulted in owls getting slaughtered, as made famous by the Freakonomics guys.
And unless Denver residents vote the right way, future columnists will have another example related to reducing, or increasing, smoking — including by kids.
The city of Denver currently has on the books a ban on all sales of flavored tobacco — which includes vapes, and perhaps most ridiculously, nicotine pouches like ZYN and Rogue that have been found to be far less harmful to health than cigarettes. Some anti-tobacco campaigners argue the law protects youth from smoking, though considerable scientific evidence indicates the exact opposite.
Opponents of the ban argue it targets small businesses, and won’t stop underage use. Mayor Mike Johnston signed the ban after it sailed through the City Council by a vote of 11-1. Councilmember Kevin Flynn was the only one sagacious enough to vote “no.”
But there’s a new twist to this saga: Joining Flynn in opposition to the ban are 17,000 Denverites who signed a petition to put Referendum 310 on the Nov. 4 ballot.
Denverites should hope both for the sake of individual liberty and public health that voters toss the ban away like so many cigarette butts.
While all amounts of not smoking are healthier than any amount of smoking, the Food and Drug Administration has determined that vaping is much less harmful than traditional smoking. Authorized vaping products pose lower risk of cancer and similar serious health conditions than cigarettes, snuff, and so forth. This is due to substantially lower amounts of harmful ingredients.
Even more notably, the FDA determined that nicotine pouches are notably less harmful to users than cigarettes. The FDA said pouches “pose lower risk of cancer and other serious health conditions … than cigarettes.” The FDA also pointed to evidence that nicotine pouches help cigarette, snuff, and snus users reduce their harm by moving off these tobacco products to the less risky alternative.
In sum, the FDA, under a fairly progressive administration, found that these products are significantly less harmful. But here’s the catch: A lot of people who use them prefer flavors that aren’t just Marlboro or Camel copycats. And the Denver ban targets all non-tobacco flavors, even mint, which smokers of menthol cigarettes looking to reduce their harm prefer.
Yet a bevy of scientific evidence from the experts we are routinely exhorted to trust shows that banning nicotine flavors pushes people, including kids, to start smoking. Actual smoking. Of cigarettes. Which kills — and kills slowly, painfully, disfiguringly and expensively.
Oxford University Press reported that one-third of U.S. smokers ages 18 to 34 said they’d switch to cigarettes if they can’t vape. Similar findings have come from Yale, New York University and the University of Missouri. The same conclusions have been reached by R Street Institute expert Jeffrey Smith. The British National Health Service concludes that, “Electronic cigarettes are used by many people to stay smoke free after they have successfully quit smoking.” Indeed, in the UK, it is standard practice for family doctors to push smokers to switch to vapor.
Washington state has looked at similar interventions, but took a pass on flavor bans in favor of keeping the products legal but taxing nicotine pouches, in particular, heavily. That is a better, though still problematic policy: Tobacco-dependence expert and NYU Professor Raymond Niaura said on a recent podcast that anything which attacks alternatives pushes people, especially kids, back to smoking.
Rates of traditional smoking are the lowest in American history since such data has been tracked. A 2024 study showed that only 11% of Americans smoked in the previous week. The results are even better among America’s youth, with only 1.4% reporting regular use.
People are healthier because they have chosen healthier (or at least less unhealthy) alternatives. We didn’t need the hand of government to smack cigarettes out of people’s mouths, and we don’t need that same hand to do so with e-cigarettes or nicotine pouches.
If Denverites fail to reverse the ban foolishly instituted by their elected officials, tobacco-related public health harm will increase, creating another Freakonomics-esque unintended consequence.
We don’t want sex offenders walking free or spotted owls getting massacred because of bad policy — and we definitely don’t want kids taking up actual smoking. The science is clear, even if its conclusions seem “freaky”: Ban tobacco flavorings and get kids hooked on deadly cancer sticks.
Jared Whitley, of Salt Lake City, is a longtime D.C. politico and freelance writer. In 2024, Colorado’s Top of the Rockies competition named him the best columnist in the Intermountain West.