If Tuesday’s razor-thin vote margins hold, Republicans would deny Democrats a supermajority in the Colorado House of Representatives, falling one seat short.
But while Republicans made small gains in the House and maintained the status quo in the state Senate, progressives may ultimately gain strength at the state Capitol.
The reason? The new crop of state senators is further to the political left than many of the term-limited moderate Democrats they’re replacing.
That could open the door to a leftward shift on issues like criminal justice, housing and the state budget and tax policy —particularly once Gov. Jared Polis, a moderating influence himself, leaves office in 2027.
In District 28 in Aurora, Rep. Mike Weissman replaces Sen. Rhonda Fields. This will see the swap of a tough-on-crime Democrat in Fields for Weissman, who has prioritized reducing incarceration and recidivism during his time at the head of the House Judiciary Committee. Weissman has also been a leading liberal voice in negotiations in recent years to make the tax code —and the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights — more progressive by shifting tax breaks and taxpayer refunds to lower-income households from higher earners.
In District 19, Rep. Lindsey Daugherty will replace longtime Sen. Rachel Zenzinger of Arvada; Daugherty is viewed as moderate by the standards of the more liberal House, but she still votes to the political left of Zenzinger, who opposed Polis’ signature land use measure, House Bill 1313, aimed at increasing density near transit. Daugherty voted against the initial House version, but supported it after changes adopted in the Senate.
Rep. Judy Amabile replaces Senate President Steve Fenberg in Boulder’s District 18 seat, but perhaps more importantly, she’ll replace Zenzinger on the Joint Budget Committee. That gives progressives on the JBC like Rep. Emily Sirota another potential vote on the budget-writing body, and could reduce the influence of Republican Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who frequently partnered with Zenzinger to promote centrist policies.
In District 14, Rep. Cathy Kipp, D-Fort Collins, will replace Sen. Joann Ginal, a political moderate. Ginal voted against the transit-oriented communities bill and sponsored an amendment to gut a bill that would have banned landlords from using algorithms to set rent, a practice that is now the subject of a federal antitrust lawsuit for alleged price-fixing.
All four of the Senate newcomers voted for a number of progressive priorities that passed in the House but failed in the state Senate. They include new restrictions on landlords, like the rent algorithm bill, and a measure allowing cities to enact rent stabilization ordinances. All four also supported the proposed ban on buying, selling and transferring a number of semi-automatic weapons, which was killed before it reached the Senate floor.
Meanwhile, progressives did lose some ground in the state House — but it remains to be seen how that will affect their influence over the policies that emerge from the lower chamber. Progressive gains in the Senate, by contrast, could result in completely different legislation reaching Polis’ desk.
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ELECTION UPDATES
Two seats remain up for grabs in the Colorado House, where as little as a few dozen votes could determine whether Democrats keep their supermajority.
So far, Republicans have flipped one seat held by Democrats, leaving the majority with 43 to the GOP’s 20, with two races yet to be called.
In Colorado Springs, Republican Rebecca Keltie led Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil in House District 16 by just 21 votes. That’s a difference of less than a tenth of a percentage point with 98% of the votes counted.
In House District 19, former state Rep. Dan Woog has a 207-vote edge over Democrat Jillaire McMillan to fill the seat of state Rep. Jennifer Parenti of Erie, who dropped her reelection bid in July. That’s a lead of 50.2% to 49.8%, with 94% of votes counted.
The Associated Press initially called the House District 19 race in Democrats’ favor, but rescinded the call over the weekend after newly counted ballots tilted the race toward the GOP. The Colorado Springs race currently falls within the threshold for an automatic recount, but Woog’s lead does not. Recounts are triggered when the apparent winner is leading by less than 0.5% of their vote total.
Republicans need to win both of those races to deny Democrats the magic number of 44 — but the difference between a House supermajority or not is largely symbolic at this point.
In the Senate, Democrats have secured 22 seats versus 12 for Republicans, with Sen. Dafna Michaelson Jenet leading 51.1% to 48.9% over Republican Frederick Alfred in the last remaining undecided race.
If Michaelson Jenet holds on, that would put Democrats one seat short of a Senate supermajority, equaling their current margin.
Michaelson Jenet’s Senate District 21, which stretches from the north Denver suburbs to the Eastern Plains, was not expected to be competitive this year. An analysis of election results by nonpartisan legislative staff conducted when the district was drawn in 2021 found that it leaned nearly 14 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. Her close shave is a surprise as the final votes are tallied in a disappointing year for Colorado Democrats, even as they largely bucked a rightward national shift.
WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK
THE BIG STORY
Why Yadira Caraveo lost
An underperformance in Adams County relative to how she fared in 2022 cost Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo reelection.
Through Tuesday morning, Caraveo was winning 54% of the vote in Adams County, down a percentage point compared with 2022. Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans, meanwhile, was winning 43% of the vote in Adams County as of Tuesday morning, three percentage points better than the share of the vote won by Caraveo’s Republican opponent in 2022, state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer.
In Weld County, Caraveo was winning 39% of the vote through Tuesday morning. That’s actually a little more than a percentage point better than the share of the vote she won there in 2022.
Evans was winning about a half a percentage point less in Weld County than Kirkmeyer won in 2022.
Caraveo spent a lot of time in Weld County after beating Kirkmeyer in 2022 trying to expand on her roughly 1,600-vote win. But she didn’t make up enough ground in the Republican stronghold to account for her losses in Adams County.
That’s a troubling sign for Democrats, who will look to unseat Evans in 2026.
Adams County is the Democratic heart of the swing district. You can bet that Democrats are going to spend a lot of time digging into why they lost some of the vote share there over two years.
TRUMP DID BETTER IN ADAMS COUNTY, TOO
Donald Trump also had a better showing in Adams County this year than he did in 2020.
Trump was winning 44.2% of the vote through Tuesday morning, compared with his 40.4% performance four years ago. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, was winning 53.1% of the vote, down from President Joe Biden’s 56.7% victory in the county in 2020.
Trump also reversed his fortunes in Pueblo County this year, beating Harris with 51.3% of the vote to her 46.3%.
Biden won Pueblo County in 2020 with 49.6% of the vote to Trump’s 47.9%. Trump won the county in 2016, with 46% of the vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 45.6% of the vote.
Through Tuesday morning, Harris had a better showing this year over Biden in 2020 in Mesa, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer and Broomfield counties. That helped offset Trump’s gains.
Overall this year, Harris was beating Trump by 11 percentage points in Colorado through Tuesday morning. That’s slightly worse than Biden’s 13.5 percentage point margin of victory in the state over Trump four years ago.
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THE POLITICAL TICKER
CONGRESS
Republican U.S. Rep.-elect Gabe Evans announced that he’s selected Tyler Moore to serve as his chief of staff. Moore was Evans’ campaign manager and is a former national field director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
During a news conference Monday, Evans said he would oppose any effort to move the U.S. Space Command headquarters out of Colorado Springs. He also said he plans to focus first on immigration when he gets to Washington, D.C.
“The first bill that I’m planning to work on is a bill that is going to make sure that our law enforcement— state and local law enforcement — is again empowered to be able to work with their federal counterparts to get violent criminals illegally present in our community out of our community,” he said.
HOUSE LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS
Colorado House Democrats reelected Speaker Julie McCluskie, a moderate Democrat from Dillon, to her third year at the helm of the chamber.
They also reelected Majority Leader Monica Duran, D-Wheat Ridge, and Assistant Minority Leader Jennifer Bacon, D-Denver.
None of the three incumbents faced a formal challenger. Rep. Andrew Boesenecker, D-Fort Collins, planned to mount a run to unseat Bacon, but dropped his bid before Monday’s caucus meeting.
A replacement for Speaker Pro Tem Chris deGruy Kennedy, who now leads the liberal Bell Policy Center, will be appointed later this year.
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