Spending in the legislative battles that will determine how large the Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate will be next year is heating up as Election Day fast approaches.
If Democrats lose three House seats Nov. 5, their supermajority in the House will be kaput. In the Senate, Democrats need to flip just one seat to secure a supermajority.
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Colorado Democrats will battle in November to keep the Republican-leaning legislative districts they won in 2022
Democrats are trying to keep their supermajority in the state House and achieve a supermajority in the state Senate, which would allow them to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support
Read moreIf Democrats have supermajorities in the House and Senate next year, they would be able to refer constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support and ask voters to make lasting changes to the tax system and around social issues. Supermajorities would also give Democrats in the legislature the ability to override vetoes by Gov. Jared Polis, who has been a persistent barrier to bills brought by some of the Capitol’s most liberal Democrats.
Polis this year nixed a number of labor-backed measures, and the threat of a gubernatorial veto has previously kept other liberal proposals, like rent stabilization and progressive tax policies, from advancing in the legislature.
More than $8 million had been reported as spent through Tuesday by state-level super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money, on legislative contests. The PACs cannot coordinate with candidates.
Here are the six races where the most money has been spent by state-level super PACs:
- Senate District 5: It’s no surprise that the Senate District 5 race between state Rep. Marc Catlin, R-Montrose, and Democrat Cole Buerger, a small business owner who lives in Glenwood Springs, had drawn the most state-level super PAC spending through Tuesday. Nearly $2 million has been spent on this Western Slope district, according to a Colorado Sun analysis, about $1.4 million of it to benefit Catlin. The district is currently represented by Sen. Perry Will, a New Castle Republican appointed to the seat by a vacancy committee; he is running for Garfield County commissioner this year instead of seeking another term. Voters in the district, which is seen as the deciding factor in determining whether Democrats secure a Senate supermajority, have backed Democratic and Republican candidates in other races in recent years. All of the state Senate seats up for grabs this year are being contested for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn during the state’s 2021 redistricting process.
- Senate District 12: Nearly $1.9 million had been spent through Tuesday by state-level super PACs in this Colorado Springs-area race between Rep. Marc Snyder, D-Manitou Springs, and El Paso County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf, a Republican. The district, which leans slightly in Republicans’ favor, is currently represented by term-limited GOP Sen. Bob Gardner. Most of the spending — nearly $1.4 million — has been to benefit Snyder. Democrats need to win this seat, along with the District 5 race, to secure a supermajority, and they are confident Snyder will win. (Democrats assume they are going to lose the race in the Republican-leaning Senate District 13 this year, where Democratic Sen. Kevin Priola is term-limited.)
- Senate District 6: Sen. Cleave Simpson, R-Alamosa, is running for reelection against Democrat Vivian Smotherman, a Durango farmer and Navy veteran, in this district that spans the San Luis Valley into the Four Corners region. At least $600,000 had been spent through Tuesday by state-level super PACs on the race, all of it to benefit Simpson. The district is estimated to lean 1 percentage point in Democrats’ favor, but Simpson is known for being a moderate who works across the aisle. If Republicans lose this seat, Democrats will almost surely secure a Senate supermajority, as they would then need to win in either District 5 or District 12, not both, to achieve the advantage — a much easier task.
- House District 25: Roughly $600,000 had been spent through Tuesday by state-level super PACs on this race between Rep. Tammy Story, D-Evergreen, and Republican George Mumma, a former police chief. In 2022, Story won in the western Jefferson County district by 729 votes, or about 1 percentage point, in a district estimated to lean 2 percentage points in the GOP’s favor. Story has received about $195,000 in help, while Mumma has gotten some $400,000 in assistance. Republicans see this seat as a prime pickup opportunity.
- House District 16: Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Vigil faces Republican Rebecca Keltie, a Navy veteran and self-described anti-establishment candidate, in this Colorado Springs district. About $550,000 had been spent by state-level super PACs on the race, about $175,000 to Vigil’s benefit. Vigil won in 2022 by 710 votes, or 2 percentage points, in the district estimated to lean 3 percentage points in the GOP’s favor, according to a nonpartisan analysis of past election results conducted as part of Colorado’s 2021 redistricting process. Republicans see this seat, too, as a prime pickup opportunity
- House District 50: Rep. Mary Young, D-Greeley, will have a rematch in this Weld County district with Republican Ryan Gonzalez, who works as a technician at J.M. Smucker. State-level super PACs had spent about $450,000 on the contest through Tuesday, with Gonzalez benefiting from $275,000 of that. Young beat Gonzalez in 2022 by 330 votes, or 2 percentage points, in a district estimated to lean 6 percentage points in Democrats’ favor. The vote margin Young won by in 2022 was the smallest among all legislative races, leading Republicans to focus their efforts on ousting her in November.
Who is behind the spending?
A handful of state-level super PACs have accounted for the majority of the outside spending in legislative races.
Here is a breakdown of the six biggest players through Tuesday:
- The Senate Majority Fund, the state Senate Republican campaign arm, had spent more than $2.4 million through Tuesday. The PAC’s single largest donation this cycle so far was $1.4 million from GOPAC Election Fund, a Virginia-based federal PAC that works to get Republicans elected to legislatures across the country.
- All Together Colorado, the state Senate Democratic campaign arm, had spent $1.8 million through Tuesday. The PAC’s single largest donation this cycle so far was $250,000 from the Sixteen Thirty Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based political nonprofit that supports liberal candidates and causes and doesn’t report its donors.
- Colorado Way Forward, the state House Democratic campaign arm, had spent about $1.4 million through Tuesday. The group’s single largest donation this cycle came from Rocky Mountain Planned Parenthood, at $200,000.
- Coloradans for Accountable Government has spent about $700,000 supporting Republican candidates and opposing Democrats. The Colorado Oil and Gas Association has given $530,000 to the committee, while the Colorado League of Charter Schools Action has given $200,000.
- New Day Colorado Fund, the state House Republican campaign arm, had spent nearly $600,000 through Tuesday. That group’s money has come from an affiliated committee, which received its donations from a range of business interests.
- Americans For Prosperity Action, affiliated with the conservative political nonprofit with the same name, had spent more than $200,000 through Tuesday.
Colorado Sun correspondent Sandra Fish contributed to this report.