The Unaffiliated is now in summer mode so that The Colorado Sun politics team can recharge the batteries and dig into some meatier stories over the next few weeks.
Through Labor Day we will publish once a week, on Fridays. We may publish the occasional Tuesday newsletter if there’s news that can’t wait, but typically the summer months are slower for political news.
We’ll be back to our regular twice-a-week frequency as the general election nears. And don’t worry: You can still expect the same amount of exclusive analysis and scoops each week from us in our Friday newsletter.
To hear the two sides argue about Initiative 108 — the proposed $3 billion property tax cut that would cut the residential property assessment rate to 5.7% — one would think they were describing two completely different proposals.
And in one important way, they effectively are.
State legislative analysts and the governor’s office say the ballot measure would force state lawmakers to come up with $2.25 billion to $3 billion in budget cuts to reimburse local governments and school districts for their lost revenue. Opponents of the measure have seized on that to describe it as a budgetary doomsday device that would lead to recession-like cuts to K-12, Medicaid and higher education just to name a few.
Meanwhile, the conservative backers of the measure, Colorado Concern and Advance Colorado, say the state would only be on the hook to replace $200 million in lost revenue. That’s a sizable sum, but far from the financial crisis of the scenario above.
So what gives? Supporters of the tax cut aren’t quibbling with the legislative staff forecasts of how much it would cut local property taxes. The more significant difference between the two numbers is that they fundamentally disagree on what the measure would require the state to do.
The text of the ballot measure requires the state “General Fund to reimburse local districts for lost revenue as a result of passage of this measure.”
To Legislative Council Staff, “lost revenue” is the money that the state would have collected if the ballot measure never happened. This is common practice among budget analysts. The difference between current law and the proposed change in law is what they use to write fiscal notes and the state voter guide, known as the Blue Book.
Backers of the measure, though, told The Colorado Sun that’s not how they interpret their own proposal.
To them, “lost revenue” only refers to situations where a local government has less money to spend than they did the year before the measure takes effect.
In other words, if a certain library district’s tax revenue would have grown from $10 million to $11 million, but instead it falls to $9 million, the state would only be responsible for getting the library back up to $10 million under the proponents’ interpretation.
In year two, if the library is back to $10 million after another year of property tax growth, that’s it — the state’s off the financial hook. Likewise, if a local agency’s revenue grew by $5 million instead of $8 million, the state wouldn’t owe anything at all.
“They misinterpret our backfill language,” Karen Crummy, a spokesperson for the campaign, told The Sun in an email. “Legislative Council is trying to say that this simple, broad and flexible definition — ‘revenue lost’ — actually means that the state has to backfill every dollar that local districts would have collected if Coloradans weren’t given property tax relief.”
So what does this disagreement mean for November — and possibly beyond, if voters approve it?
It’s not clear. Lawmakers tend to defer to their own legislative analysts and lawyers when writing legislation and interpreting what it demands of them. Then again, intent matters, too. When there’s disagreement over what the plain language of a statute means, courts often look to what the authors of a measure intended.
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THE IMPLICATIONS OF “LOST REVENUE”
Whether you accept the legislative staff interpretation or the conservatives’ take on the proposal, many of the critics of Initiative 108 would oppose the tax cut either way.
But the implications are quite different if you accept Colorado Concern’s version of how it would work.
Local governments would be forced to live with less money, but the state would be spared from the full brunt of the property tax cuts. That would avoid the worst state budget scenarios envisioned by Mark Ferrandino, the director of the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting.
Still, no matter what “lost revenue” the measure applies to, the school finance implications would be similar.
Remember: The single biggest reason the state was able to eliminate the budget stabilization factor and met its constitutional requirements to fund K-12 education has been the explosive growth in local property taxes over the past several years.
Initiative 108 — combined with Initiative 50, which would set a 4% annual cap on property tax revenue — seeks to limit that growth in the future.
That means that to meet its school funding obligations, the state would have to tighten its belt in other areas, like Medicaid and higher education.
Under Colorado Concern’s own estimates, which were provided to The Sun, school districts would collect nearly $800 million less in the 2025 tax year under their measure than they would under current law.
Even if that’s not considered “lost revenue,” the state is still on the hook to cover that in order to keep schools fully funded under Amendment 23 to the state constitution.
Two other caveats to keep in mind:
WHAT TO WATCH
COLORADO LIBERTARIANS BACK RFK
The Colorado Libertarian Party announced Tuesday that it will support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president and intends to place him on the state’s November ballot instead of the party’s own nominee.
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shares many of the Libertarian Party’s core principles, including a commitment to civil liberties, free markets and a non-interventionist foreign policy,” the party said in a written statement. “His campaign’s focus on ending corporate welfare, reducing government spending and protecting the environment aligns with our values and resonates with Colorado voters.”
The Colorado Secretary of State’s Office said the party has until Sept. 6 to file its presidential nominating paperwork with state elections officials.
“How the party selects a nominee is going to come down to their operations and bylaws,” said Kailee Stiles, a spokeswoman for the Secretary of State’s Office. “Whoever is on the nominating paperwork that is filed by the party by Sept. 6 is up to them.”
YOU HEARD IT HERE
THE NARRATIVE
The most competitive state House and Senate districts in November
With Colorado’s primary elections now (mostly*) behind us, we’re turning our attention to the hotly contested legislative primaries on the November ballot that will determine whether Democrats keep their supermajority in the House and pick one up in the Senate.
Democrats won a lot of state House races two years ago that they were expected to lose, giving the party a 46-19 supermajority in the chamber. Now they must defend those seats in a national political environment that could favor Republicans given the questions about President Joe Biden’s mental fitness.
Here are the House races to watch and who’s running in them:
Democrats hold a 23-12 majority in the Senate, one seat away from a supermajority, which would give them the power to refer constitutional changes to the ballot. Democrats will be defending two competitive seats in November and trying to pick up three others.
The districts with state Senate races this year will be up for grabs for the first time since their boundaries were redrawn in the 2021 redistricting process.
Here are the state Senate races to watch and who’s running in them:
HOUSE DISTRICT 58 HEADS TO RECOUNT
* The outcome of the Republican primary in House District 58 in southwest Colorado is still being determined.
Less than 25 votes separated Paonia rancher J. Mark Roeber and former Montzuma County Commissioner Larry Don Suckla as of Friday morning.
It seems likely the race goes to a mandatory recount, which happens when the number of votes separating the leading two candidates is less than 0.5% of the number of votes cast for the leading candidate. Suckla’s lead is within that margin now.
The winner of the GOP primary will face Democrat Kathleen Curry, who served in the House from 2005 to 2011.
DANNY MOORE DROPS OUT
Republican Danny Moore, Republican gubernatorial candidate Heidi Ganahl’s running mate in 2022, filed paperwork Monday with state elections officials terminating his campaign to represent state House District 37 in Centennial. The move comes after he ran unopposed last week in the district’s GOP primary. A vacancy committee will be convened to select Moore’s replacement to face Democratic state Rep. Chad Clifford in November.
A representative for Moore confirmed that he is no longer in the race, but didn’t respond to Colorado Sun questions about why he dropped out.
House District 37 leans 7 percentage points in Democrats’ favor, according to past election results. Former state Rep. Ruby Dickson, a Democrat, won the district by 12 percentage points in 2022 but resigned at the end of her first year, leading to Clifford’s vacancy appointment.
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THE POLITICAL TICKER
ADAM FRISCH
Adam Frisch, the Democratic nominee in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, called on President Joe Biden to abandon his reelection bid. In an interview with The Colorado Sun, Frisch said he doesn’t have a preferred candidate to replace Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee. “I just know that there are 10 or 15 people (interested in running),” he said. “They can figure out amongst themselves who wants to run for president, who wants to be for vice president. If the vice president wants to be one of those people, good for her. If all these other people that people have been talking about (want to run), good for them.” Frisch wouldn’t commit to voting for Biden if he is the Democratic nominee, but he also said he wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump.
8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans created a leadership PAC, Thin Blue Line PAC, as he looks toward his November race in the highly competitive 8th Congressional District against U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton. Leadership PACs may accept donations of $5,000 per year from individual donors. The money they raise can be donated to other candidates and spent on fundraising and travel. Donors who have already given to Evans’ congressional campaign may now also give to his leadership fund. Caraveo is the only member of Colorado’s congressional delegation who doesn’t have a leadership PAC.
ABORTION
The Colorado Organization for Latina Opportunity and Reproductive Rights is joining the abortion-rights nonprofit Cobalt in buying $1 million worth of TV ad time for the fall. The groups are supporting a ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to guarantee abortion access and lift a ban on public funds being used for abortion.
SENDING OUR LOVE TO JOHN FRANK
We’re sending our love and support to former Colorado Sun reporter and Unaffiliated founder John Frank and his wife after they experienced a scary medical emergency over the weekend. Read John’s writeup of what happened here.
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THIS WEEK’S PODCAST: Unpacking Colorado’s primary election results
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THE BIGGER PICTURE
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