Unpacking the Democratic legislative primary results in Colorado

The results of Colorado’s Democratic legislative primaries are confounding political observers. Progressive candidates lost in the majority of contested House and Senate races, but they also won in a few key contests.

Here are our takeaways from what happened:

• It would be easy to point to money as the deciding factor in all of the contests, but the data doesn’t totally bear out that narrative. Take the Senate District 28 Democratic primary in Aurora, where more than $1 million was spent by political groups, about 70% of it to defeat Rep. Mike Weissman, the more progressive choice. The total state-level super PAC spending in the district was the highest of any legislative primary this year, but Weissman still beat his opponent, attorney Idris Keith. In the Democratic primary in House District 52, which ranked No. 4 in terms of political group spending, Fort Collins tax attorney Yara Zokaie beat former lobbyist Ethnie Treick. There was about $270,000 spent to defeat Zokaie, the more progressive choice, while about $240,000 was spent to help her.
• It would also be wrong to write off the effect of the outside spending entirely. In the races where one candidate benefited from political group spending and the other received zero help, the latter always lost. That includes Rep. Elisabeth Epps in House District 6, Westminster City Councilman Obi Ezeadi in Senate District 19 and Kyra DeGruy Kennedy in House District 30.
• Having friends at the Capitol helped. Many of the candidates who won had more endorsements from incumbent lawmakers and elected leaders than their opponents. Denver attorney Sean Camacho, for instance, was endorsed by a who’s who of Democrats, while his opponent, Epps, didn’t list any such support on her website. Reps. Judy Amabile and Lindsey Daugherty beat their rivals in Senate District 18 and 19, respectively, after receiving backing from a broad spectrum of Democrats. Rep. Tim Hernández in House District 4 was one of the exceptions to that trend, but there was a ton of outside spending in his race and Hernández had a good deal of negative press coverage working against him.
• Along the “having friends matters” line, remember that a lot of progressive incumbents didn’t face primary challenges this cycle. People like Democratic Reps. Lorena Garcia and Javier Mabrey and Manny Rutinel. They are among the most liberal Democrats in the legislature, but they have reputations for working well with their colleagues. 

The bottom line: Overall, Tuesday was a bad day for progressives. But it’s difficult to write a decisive narrative about what happened in all of the Democratic legislative primaries.

The districts and candidates aren’t monoliths. The money mattered, yes, but so did who was running.

STORY: Elisabeth Epps, Tim Hernández unseated as Democratic legislative primary results are a mixed bag for progressives

VACANCY APPOINTEES WERE 0-2

There’s been a lot of focus on legislative vacancy committees in recent years and whether they are truly reflective of their districts. The vacancy-appointed Democratic representatives who faced primary challenges — Hernández and Marvin — both lost Tuesday to the candidates they beat in their vacancy elections.

Hernández was elected to his seat last year by a 66-member Democratic vacancy committee. Marvin was elected to her seat this year by a 17-member Democratic vacancy committee.

Hernández was losing to former federal immigration judge Cecelia Espenoza as of Thursday morning with 4,908 votes to Espenoza’s 5,572 votes, a 6 percentage point margin.

Marvin was losing in House District 31 to former Thornton City Councilwoman Jacque Phillips with 2,064 votes to Phillips’ 2,487, a 10 percentage point margin.

HOT TAKES

Here are some hot takes on the legislative primary results that we thought were interesting:

• “The dark money pouring in from the Colorado centimillionaires into our primary elections is disgusting,” said state Sen. Julie Gonzales, a Denver Democrat. “If I were a candidate running this year, I would condemn it. It’s telling to see who has publicly condemned it and who has looked the other way with a tight-lipped smile.”
• “If you take politics as a game, you have to play underneath the rules,” Deep Badhesha, a lobbyist and progressive activist who is close with Epps and other progressives who ran this year, told The Denver Post. “You can’t appear to be disagreeable. You have to appear to voters as someone who’s getting things done.”
• “As folks debate the election results, one thing that stands out is the lack of introspection on display,” said state Rep. Steven Woodrow, a Denver Democrat who backed Camacho this year after supporting Epps in 2022.
• “It’s a certain brand of progressive that lost. Learn,” said outgoing state Rep. David Ortiz, a Littleton Democrat who backed Hernández and opposed Epps.
• “There’s a difference between being progressive and being extreme,” said Sarah Andrews, a Democratic campaign operative and the wife of state Sen. Dylan Roberts, D-Frisco. “You can be a pragmatic progressive — and by a majority those are the people that won last night in Colorado.” She said the results are also a reminder that Twitter isn’t real life.
• “Despite low voter turnout, first signs that the pendulum is beginning to settle in the moderate middle?” said Sandra Hagen Solin, a lobbyist.
• Denver Post political reporter Seth Klamann pointed out that Judy Amabile, Mike Weissman and Lindsey Daugherty are replacing much more moderate Democrats in the Senate, as will Rep. Cathy Kipp of Fort Collins. They are replacing, respectively, term-limited Democratic Sens. Steve Fenberg, Rhonda Fields, Rachel Zenzinger and Joann Ginal.

DO THE MATH

Political groups spent $1,053,401 to sway voters in the race, while the candidates’ campaigns spent another $210,534, as of the latest campaign finance figures available Thursday.

Keith benefited the most from interest group spending that came from outside the campaigns — $717,012, or $146 for each of the 4,917 votes cast in his favor.

Groups spent $336,379 to help Weissman win, or $85 per vote. Weissman’s campaign, however, outspent Keith’s about 2-to-1.

Weissman won with 53% of the vote, according to unofficial results through Thursday.

YOU HEARD IT HERE

Seitchik is no fan of Williams. He was the Western regional political director for Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign when he got to know Williams — and fired him from his volunteer role for allegedly abusing his title. (Seitchek called Williams an “asshole’s asshole” in this newsletter two years ago.) But his point is salient.

The 5th District is a Republican stronghold — Trump country, if you will — so the fact that a Trump-endorsed candidate lost there is a big deal.

“It speaks to Dave Williams’ failure as a candidate that you lose a GOP primary with the most potent political endorsement in political history,” Seitchik said. “Voters identified Dave Williams’ raging moral turpitude.”

STORY: Jeff Crank beats Dave Williams in Republican primary in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District

STORY: 14 of the 18 Republican candidates endorsed by the Colorado GOP lost their primary races

FORBES: Rough night For Trump-endorsed candidates: 3 Trump-backed GOP picks lost primaries

JEFF CRANK’S “UNITY RALLY”

COLORADO SPRINGS — Less than 48 hours after beating Dave Williams in the 5th District Republican primary, Jeff Crank stood under cloudy skies Thursday evening alongside about 60 supporters to try to unite the fractured Colorado GOP.

“People are tired of us fighting. We’re like children bickering. We can’t do that anymore,” Crank told the crowd at Gateway Park in Colorado Springs. “We have to be the adults in the room, we’re going to be the adults in the room moving forward. From here on out.”

Notably missing: Williams and his top supporters.

Williams did not call to concede or congratulate Crank, Ashlee Springer, an organizer of the rally told The Colorado Sun.

The rally was attended by a group of Republican leaders who were already supporting Crank or part of his less extreme branch of the GOP, including former Secretary of State Wayne Williams, state Sen. Larry Liston, state Rep. Mary Bradfield, Sheriff Joe Roybal and 4th Judicial District Attorney Michael Allen.

“I think it should be clear to everybody that the Democrats sense that we’re vulnerable. They see fighting in our party, they see declining voter registration, they see changing community dynamics,” Allen said. “And so with all of those things as our burden, our responsibility is we’ve got to come together, we’ve got to unite.”

Other Republicans who attended the rally: State Reps. Don Wilson and Ken DeGraaf, House District 16 candidate Rebecca Keltie, House District 20 candidate Jarvis Caldwell Colorado Springs city councilman Dave Donelson, and El Paso County commissioners Stan VanderWerf, Carrie Geitner and Holly Williams.

Our take: It’s not clear the rally did much uniting of anyone other than Republicans who were already united. DeGraaf may be the one exception.

— Colorado Sun staff writer Olivia Prentzel covered the rally in Colorado Springs.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

COLORADO SENATE

State Sen. Kevin Van Winkle’s victory in the Republican primary for a seat on the Douglas County Commission all but guarantees that he will win in November, too, given the county’s GOP lean. That means a vacancy committee will be convened to determine who serves out the rest of his Senate term, which ends in early 2027. The only sitting Republican representative who lives in his Senate District 30 is Brandi Bradley. Former state Rep. Kim Ransom, a Littleton Republican, also lives in the district. The district includes Highlands Ranch, Roxborough Park, Lone Tree and Castle Pines.

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

The National Republican Congressional Committee is reserving $2.3 million in TV ad time for the fall in Colorado’s toss-up 8th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, faces state Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Fort Lupton. The money is part of $45.7 million in spending on national advertising time by the NRCC. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already reserved $1.6 million in TV ad time for the district. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, has reserved $5.1 million in TV time aimed at the district and House Majority PAC, a Democratic group, has reserved $3.9 million in 8th District TV time.

5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Science educator River Gassen won the two-way Democratic primary in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, defeating Army veteran Joe Reagan by just under 500 votes. She’ll face Republican Jeff Crank, a conservative commentator and activist, in November, as well as American Constitution Party candidate Christopher Mitchell. Unaffiliated candidates Joseph Gaye and Katrina Nguyen have until July 11 to submit signatures to make the general election ballot in the Republican stronghold district in El Paso County.

COLORADO LIBERTARIAN PARTY

The Libertarian Party presidential ticket won’t appear on Colorado’s general election ballot, the Colorado Libertarian Party said Thursday. In an email announcing the decision, the state party criticized presidential candidate Chase Oliver for, among other things, wearing a mask at a 2020 Thanksgiving event and saying gender-affirming care is a decision left to parents and their children. The state party’s board of directors recently voted against submitting the paperwork to get Oliver and his vice presidential running mate, Mike ter Maat, on the ballot.

READ MORE

• Why Lauren Boebert likely won’t lose to a Democrat in November
• Most Colorado oil and gas wells do not generate enough cash to ensure they will be cleaned up, study says
• Kansas forced Colorado to stop irrigating 25,000 acres of farmland. Was it too soon to put them in the same room?
• Randy Corporon wired $375K divorce settlement to hacker, lawsuit says
  — BusinessDen 🔑
• American Muckrakers PAC announces settlement with Lauren Boebert in defamation lawsuit
  — Colorado Newsline

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

ELECTION 2024

Don’t miss our 2024 primary results coverage

Below you’ll find links to all of our 2024 primary results stories that aren’t elsewhere in this newsletter:

• Lauren Boebert wins six-way primary in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, making her reelection highly probable
• Republican Greg Lopez wins special election to serve out Ken Buck’s term in Congress
• Jeff Hurd wins Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, will take on Democrat Adam Frisch in November
• Denver Democrats pick John Walsh for district attorney. George Brauchler wins GOP election in new district.
• Gabe Evans wins Republican primary in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, will take on Democrat Yadira Caraveo
• Colorado Board of Education could shift against charter schools following Democratic primary

THE BIGGER PICTURE

• Why Hakeem Jeffries isn’t that upset about Jamaal Bowman’s loss
  — Politico
• Democrats keep feuding in Philly, imperiling Biden’s reelection
  — Bloomberg 🔑
• Rep. John Curtis calls U.S. Senate primary win a testament to Utah values over partisan labels
  — The Deseret News
• The newest deciders: Almost 2 million women have become U.S. citizens since the 2020 election
  — The 19th

🔑 = source has article meter or paywall

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