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Posted inNews:Newsletters

Unaffiliated voters are the biggest bloc in every Colorado congressional district

Plus: What Faith Winter’s absence means for Colorado Senate Democrats. CD4 Democrats’ assembly. Petition signatures verified.
by Sandra Fish, Jesse Paul and Brian Eason 9:07 AM MDT on Apr 12, 20249:34 AM MDT on Apr 12, 2024 Why you can trust The Colorado Sun

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The Unaffiliated — All politics, no agenda.

  ALERT:   The Colorado House is debating House Bill 1292, which would ban the purchase, sale and transfer of a broad swath of semiautomatic firearms, defined in the measure as assault weapons.

Debate on the measure was limited by Democrats to five hours.

The measure likely has enough Democratic support to pass the chamber, but it faces an uphill battle in the Senate and Gov. Jared Polis is skeptical of the legislation.


Colorado’s eight congressional districts have more unaffiliated voters than when their boundaries were drawn three years ago.

The biggest change has been in the 5th Congressional District in El Paso County, where unaffiliated voters now make up half of the active registered voters, according to statistics compiled by the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office from April 1. That compares with 44% in mid-June of 2021.

The district is still a Republican stronghold. Thirty percent of the electorate are Republicans, while only 18% are Democrats.

The 4th Congressional District, which includes Douglas County, Loveland and much of the Eastern Plains, is 35% Republican, the highest share among the eight districts. But the largest portion of the district’s electorate is unaffiliated, at 46%, while 17% are Democrats, the lowest percentage among the state’s congressional districts.

Denver’s 1st Congressional District has the biggest share of Democrats among the state’s congressional districts, at 42%. Forty-seven percent of the district’s voters are unaffiliated, and only 9% are Republicans.

Statewide, 48% of active voters were registered as unaffiliated as of April 1, while 26% were registered as Democrats and 24% were registered as Republicans.

Welcome to The Unaffiliated, the politics and policy newsletter from The Colorado Sun. Twice a week, we take you inside the political arena to deliver news and insights on Colorado politics. Keep reading for even more exclusive news.

If you’re reading this newsletter but not signed up for it, here’s how to get it sent directly to your email inbox. Please send feedback and tips to jesse@coloradosun.com.

  MORE:   The number of unaffiliated voters has risen steadily in Colorado as they were allowed to participate in partisan primary elections starting in 2018.

Another factor is automatic voter registration through the Division of Motor Vehicles, during which unregistered voters are registered as unaffiliated and then can affiliate with a party later on. That began in 2020.

  JESSE’S ANALYSIS:   Most people think that voters who are registered as unaffiliated are more moderate, but election results in Colorado over the past several cycles indicate that’s a fallacy. I like to think of them more as chameleons: they blend in with the politics of those around them.

So in a district with more registered Republicans than Democrats, the unaffiliated voters tend to be more conservative — and vice versa. That’s why the 5th District remains a Republican stronghold and the 1st District remains so reliably Democratic.

ELECTION 2024

Trisha Calvarese takes top line on CD4 ballot; state elections officials verify wave of candidate’s petition signatures

Trisha Calvarese won the Democratic nominating assembly in the 4th Congressional District on Thursday night, securing top line on the June 25 primary ballot.

Her name will appear twice on the ballot since she’s her party’s nominee for the special election in the district on the same ballot that will determine who serves out the rest of former U.S. Rep. Ken Buck’s term.

Calvarese won 58% of the delegate vote, beating John Padora, who came in a distant second with 34% of the vote, though still more than the 30% needed to make the ballot. Political science professor Karen Breslin didn’t make the primary ballot after winning just 8% of the vote.

“The fewer Democrats on the ballot for the primary, the clearer the choice to voters,” Calvarese, a former congressional and campaign staffer, told delegates.

Padora had the opposite message.

“We owe it to the countless Democratic and unaffiliated voters in CD4 who aren’t here in this room tonight to offer them options on the June 25 primary ballot,” he said.

  STORY:   Lawsuit alleges Trisha Calvarese, Democratic nominee for 4th Congressional District special election, is ineligible

  MORE:   The Colorado Secretary of State’s Office this week verified a number of candidates’ petition signatures. The highlights:

  • In the Democratic primary in the 4th Congressional District, Marine veteran Ike McCorkle’s petition signatures were verified and he in turn ended his assembly nomination bid. He’ll face Calvarese and Padora. 
  • In the Republican 4th Congressional District primary, the signatures turned in by state Reps. Richard Holtorf and Mike Lynch were verified. They’ll face U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert and conservative commentator Deborah Flora whose signatures were previously verified by the Secretary of State’s Office. We’re awaiting word on state Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg’s signatures, as well as those collected by businessmen Peter Yu and Floyd Trujillo. As we’ve reported before, the more people on the ballot, the better Boebert will likely fare.
  • In the 3rd Congressional District, Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd advanced to the Republican primary ballot. He’ll face State Board of Education member Stephen Varela and former state Rep. Ron Hanks, as well as businessman Curtis McCrackin, whose signatures were previously verified by state elections officials. The winner of the GOP primary in the 3rd District will face former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, a Democrat, in November.

As of Friday morning, only one candidate’s petition signatures were deemed insufficient: American Constitution Party candidate James Garey in the 8th Congressional District. He can still make the general election ballot through the assembly.

You can find a list of candidates who are petitioning onto the ballot and the status of the review of their signatures here.

Want to reach Colorado political influencers and support quality local journalism? The Sun can help get your message attention through a sponsorship of The Unaffiliated, the must-read politics and policy newsletter in Colorado. Contact Sylvia Harmon at underwriting@coloradosun.com for more information.

THE POLITICAL TICKER

  ELECTION 2024  : Nearly four months after Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert switched congressional districts, Democrat Adam Frisch continues to invoke her in nearly every fundraising email he sends out. “Please, will you give $5 or more right now — whatever you can afford before midnight tonight — to help me hit our critical fundraising goal, win this seat, and replace Lauren Boebert in Congress?” Frisch said in an email to supporters Wednesday evening. The Frisch campaign followed up with another Boebert-centric fundraising email Thursday morning. Frisch lost to Boebert by 546 votes in the 3rd Congressional District in 2022. Boebert is now running for reelection in the 4th Congressional District.

  REPUBLICANS:   Dave Williams, Colorado GOP chairman and a 5th Congressional District candidate, visited Washington, D.C., this week. U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert was spotted introducing him to other GOP lawmakers. Caitlyn Kim, Colorado Public Radio’s Washington reporter, said she saw Boebert bring U.S Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Thomas Massie of Kentucky to meet Williams. The Colorado GOP endorsed Boebert in a social media post Monday.

  COURTS:   Gov. Jared Polis on Tuesday appointed J. Chris Larson, a federal prosecutor in Colorado’s U.S. Attorney’s Office, to be a district court judge in Boulder County. His appointment is effective May 11. Larson is the husband of Polis’ former budget director, Lauren Larson.

  8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT:   The House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, says it is reserving $3.9 million in TV and digital ads in the Denver market, part of a $186 million national ad campaign. Those ads are likely aimed at the 8th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Thornton, is running for reelection in a toss-up race that could decide control of Congress. House Majority PAC spent about $2.9 million in 2022 attacking Caraveo’s GOP opponent, state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer. Meanwhile, Caraveo’s likely general election opponent, state Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Fort Lupton, is on the “Trailblazers” list of priority candidates for the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC. Evans faces former state Rep. Janak Joshi in the June 25 primary.

  MORE:   Evans announced this week that he has hired Tyler Moore, the former national field director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, as his campaign manager. He’s also brought on Jessica Spindle, a Weld Re-8 school board member, to serve as his political director.

  STORY:   Republican state representative left a loaded handgun in Colorado Capitol bathroom

  STORY:   Bipartisan group of lawmakers wants to change Colorado’s school funding formula after 30 years

  STORY:   Colorado’s $40.6B budget is nearing final passage. Here’s what’s in it.

  STORY:   Colorado House Republicans’ ill-fated effort to impeach Secretary of State Jena Griswold fails in first vote

  STORY:   Hospitals suing patients over unpaid bills would have to put their names on lawsuits under new Colorado measure

  STORY:   Yes, you’ll have to pay twice, and other passenger train news for Colorado

  STORY:   Denver restores public services, creates asylum-seeker job program as part of expected $90 million in migrant aid

  STORY:   Colorado debating bill that would allow local governments to regulate pesticides. Industry lobbyists are fighting it.

  STORY:   Colorado lawmakers approve bill to require landlords to complete serious repairs faster

  THE VAIL DAILY:   Bill that would hike property taxes for short-term rental properties will be gutted

  COLORADO PUBLIC RADIO:   Former Dominion employee defamation suit against Trump campaign can continue, court says

  COLORADO POLITICS:   Richard Holtorf calls on Colorado GOP chairman to resign after party endorses Lauren Boebert in Republican primary

  THE DENVER POST:   Colorado Democrats’ conflicting criminal justice stances boil over in fight over human-trafficking bill

  THE DENVER POST:   Opposition from Colorado fire chiefs sinks bid to allow taller single-stair apartment buildings

  DENVERITE:   Should most Denver City and County employees have collective bargaining rights? Voters may get to decide.

  THIS WEEK’S PODCAST:   What’s next for Colorado’s state budget

COLORADO LEGISLATURE

It’s unclear how long Faith Winter will be away from the legislature. That could pose some problems for Democrats.

A graphic showing how much the ingredients in a burger have increased
State Sen. Faith Winter, D-Westminster, during the governor’s swearing-in ceremony, on Jan. 10, 2023, at the Colorado State Capitol in Denver. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun)

It’s unclear when Assistant Senate Majority Leader Faith Winter will return to the Capitol after announcing last week that she was seeking treatment for alcohol abuse. (The Westminster Democrat has been marked excused every day since.) But Winter’s absence could present some problems for her party as sine die — the end of the legislative session — nears.

Senate Majority Leader Robert Rodriguez, D-Denver, said he hasn’t heard from Winter since she entered treatment and that he’s giving her some space. But here’s some of the fallout from her absence:

  • Winter stepped down as chair of the Senate Transportation and Energy Committee as part of her announcement. Sen. Kevin Priola, a Henderson Democrat, has been promoted from vice chair to fill that role. Sen. Lisa Cutter, D-Morrison, is now vice chair. 
  • Rodriguez said he has been subbing in replacements for Winter on her committees — Transportation and Energy and the Local Government and Housing Committee — and will continue to do so on a “week-by-week basis.”
  • There’s been no change in Winter’s leadership status. “Other members have stepped up and offered to help with anything on the floor,” Rodriguez said. “Right now, while she’s dealing with her recovery, I’m just hoping that she takes care of herself before she decides what she wants to do.”
  • It’s unclear how Winter’s absence will affect the many bills she’s a main sponsor of, including House Bill 1147, the highly controversial measure introduced Tuesday that would change the Regional Transportation District’s governance structure. Right now, Winter is the only lead sponsor of the legislation in the Senate.

Finally, Winter’s absence shrinks the Democratic majority in the Senate to 22-12 from 23-12.

That may not seem like a big deal, but it matters a lot for Senate Concurrent Resolution 1, which would refer a measure to the November ballot asking voters to amend the state constitution to let victims of child sex abuse sue their abusers even if the statute of limitation has run out.

The resolution needs a supermajority of support in the Senate — or 24 votes — to pass. Democrats are one vote shy of the threshold in the chamber and no Republican will join them so far to advance the measure.

Winter’s absence means Democrats need at least two Republican votes to advance the resolution.

Rodriguez warned reporters Tuesday that there may be other pieces of legislation for which Winter’s absence may pose a numbers problem for Democrats.

“I think that will be a question throughout the session with a lot of bills,” he said.

  MORE:   Sen. Jessie Danielson, a Wheat Ridge Democrat and a main sponsor of Senate Concurrent Resolution 1, said she has been working hard to secure support from at least one Senate Republican to get the supermajority support the measure needs to advance.

Danielson told The Unaffiliated that she’s committed to bringing the resolution up for a vote in the Senate before the end of session, even if it’s unclear she has enough votes to reach a supermajority of support and get it passed.

“I’m putting them on the record,” she said of the Republicans who have refused to back the measure. “They’re going to vote.”

Democrats hold a supermajority in the House, and Danielson said the resolution should easily clear that chamber should she get it out of the Senate.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

  • Ron DeSantis signs bill that increases penalties for fentanyl “exposure”
    — The Tallahassee Democrat
  • Matt Gaetz is winning
    — The Atlantic
  • Why independents can’t vote in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary, and the slow-moving push to change that
    — Spotlight PA
  • In Arizona’s crucial Senate race, a liberal fighter courts the center
    — The New York Times
  • Arizona House Republicans halt Democrats’ effort to overturn 1864 law
    — The Arizona Republic

Corrections & Clarifications

Notice something wrong? The Colorado Sun has an ethical responsibility to fix all factual errors. Request a correction by emailing corrections@coloradosun.com.

Type of Story: News

Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Tagged: Premium Newsletter, The Unaffiliated

Sandra FishData Journalist

fish@coloradosun.com

Sandra Fish has covered government and politics in Iowa, Florida, New Mexico and Colorado. She was a full-time journalism instructor at the University of Colorado for eight years, and her work as appeared on CPR, KUNC, The Washington Post, Roll... More by Sandra Fish

Jesse PaulPolitical Reporter & Editor

jesse@coloradosun.com

Jesse Paul is a Denver-based political reporter and editor at The Colorado Sun, covering the state legislature, Congress and local politics. He is the author of The Unaffiliated newsletter and also occasionally fills in on breaking news coverage. A... More by Jesse Paul

Brian EasonPolitics and Policy Reporter

brian@coloradosun.com

Brian Eason writes about the Colorado state budget, tax policy, PERA and housing. He's passionate about explaining how our government works, and why it often fails to serve the public interest. Born in Dallas, Brian has covered state... More by Brian Eason

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The Colorado Sun is an award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state — our community — can better understand itself. The Colorado Sun is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. EIN: 36-5082144

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