For nearly three decades, the Grand Traverse has tested the endurance and grit of ski mountaineers, sending teams overnight across Colorado’s Elk Mountains from Crested Butte to Aspen.
The point-to-point ski course stretches 40 miles, with more than 6,800 vertical feet of climbing. Because the race winds through remote backcountry terrain, competitors race in teams of two, carry mandatory safety gear and start at midnight, when avalanche danger is typically lower.
Last year, for the first time since the race began in 1989, organizers canceled the event shortly before the start due to insufficient snowpack, open water and other serious safety concerns. The only other cancellation in the race’s history was in 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
For racers who had spent months preparing, the news came as a shock.
“It was five hours before the race when we got the news,” said Jason Sumner, who lives in Crested Butte and had been training all winter to compete in his first Grand Traverse. “To put three and a half months of really hard work and a lot of puzzling over gear into something and then have it canceled was pretty devastating, to say the least. It was all kinds of emotions.”
As another year unfolds with low snowpack and warm temperatures, racers and organizers are confronting an increasingly pressing question: What happens to the Grand Traverse if winters no longer behave the way they once did — and the snow conditions on the historic route between Crested Butte and Aspen, which is based on snowy mail-delivery paths from the 1880s – become too unsafe for speedy racers year after year?
This year’s race is set to start March 29, and organizers are already looking at alternative routes due to current avalanche danger, thin coverage along the course, and river crossings that may not be frozen over.
“The character of the race is very tied to the Crested Butte-to-Aspen journey,” said Hedda Petterson, executive director of the Crested Butte Nordic Center, which organizes the race. “Once we move too far away from it, I think it becomes something else altogether.”
While climate change is raising new concerns about the race’s future, unpredictability has always been part of the Grand Traverse. Shifting weather, avalanche risk and mountain conditions have often forced organizers to make difficult last-minute decisions.
“It’s really tough to forecast too far from the race,” said Jake Beren, snow safety director for this year’s Grand Traverse. “We really only know what’s going to happen the day of.”
Six times in its history, organizers have deemed the traditional route to Aspen unsafe due to avalanche risk or weather, switching the route to a shortened alternative known as the “Reverse.” Instead of crossing the Elk Mountains to Aspen, the 33-mile course sends teams on a loop tour through the Brush Creek drainage before returning to Crested Butte.
“It’s really amazing when you think about how many years the Grand Traverse has run, and how many of those years we’ve actually been able to safely make it all the way to Aspen,” said Pat O’Neill, who has competed in the race every year since it began. “I don’t bank on anything until the gun has gone off and I’m up Warming House Hill.”
Even by the Grand Traverse’s unpredictable standards, however, the past two winters stand out. The race was reversed in 2024 and canceled in 2025 due to low snowpack and warm temperatures.
“I think a reverse the year before and then a cancellation last year will certainly impact people’s decision to do the Grand Traverse this year and in the future,” O’Neill said.
Petterson said 240 teams are registered this year, fewer than in previous years.
“My partner and I signed up again, and we were actually out today training for about seven hours,” Sumner said. “We’re just pushing ahead and crossing our fingers, hoping this year we will actually race.”
The conditions affecting the race in recent years reflect a broader shift in local winter weather.
According to billy barr, who has recorded high-alpine weather data in the Upper East River Valley for more than five decades, this winter fits into a longer pattern of declining snowfall.
“Assuming that we’re not going to get another 250 inches of snow in the next two months, which we won’t, this will be the 14th winter of below-average snowfall within the last 15 years,” said barr, who prefers to see his name in lower case, saying “I’m not that important.”
“It’s certainly a trend. It may only be a 15-year trend, which is meteorologically short, but when 14 of the 15 years are below average, that says something.”
This winter also brought something barr had never recorded before at his weather station near Gothic: rain in December.
Those conditions are already shaping how organizers are planning this year’s race, including the possibility of a new alternative route if the traditional course proves unsafe.
“This event always requires some level of contingency planning, and I think the past couple of years have certainly added to that,” Petterson said.
Petterson added that organizers are discussing a new backup route that would avoid crossing the East River, which may not hold a frozen snow bridge this year, while still finishing in Aspen. Instead, skiers would start in the town of Crested Butte, follow Nordic trails through Town Ranch and then connect to Brush Creek Road, which would include navigating about three miles of dirt.
But rerouting the race is far from simple. Beyond weather and snow conditions, organizers must also navigate a web of permits and secure permission from multiple landowners along the course.
“These are not simple plans to put in place, but we’re trying to be extra proactive this year,” Petterson said. “I think it’s often overlooked by the general public how much we can actually pivot certain elements of this event because of permits.”
This year, those contingency plans may be especially important, as the chances of racing the traditional Crested Butte-to-Aspen route appear slim.
“There is not a lot of hope that the traditional route will be safe, honestly,” Petterson said.
For now, organizers say the final decision will likely come down to conditions in the days leading up to the race, which is scheduled for March 29th.
“If we had a crystal ball, we’d use it,” Petterson said. “But we’re trying to learn as much as we can about the snowpack and course conditions, and that ultimately requires having our field teams in place the week of the race.”
For Beren, the call ultimately boils down to one question: safety.
“As a backcountry race, it really is all up to what Mother Nature provides,” Beren said. “It always comes down to whether we can put 400 of our friends on this slope in the dark and feel like it’s a smart decision. And we can’t make that call yet.”
While organizers once again scramble to ensure the race runs this year, they are also beginning to wonder whether the essence of the Grand Traverse will be lost as warmer, drier winters force the race to continually adapt.
“Our goal is to preserve what makes the race special, but we also have to be realistic about the challenges warmer temperatures and low-snow winters present,” Petterson said.
The Grand Traverse’s combination of distance, elevation gain, and backcountry terrain is a test of sheer mental and physical endurance. For many racers, it’s not only the lung-busting, leg-burning intensity, but the route linking the two mountain town communities, that makes the race truly one of a kind.
“Catching the sunrise with the morning light hitting the fourteeners is always incredible,” O’Neill said. “Then you end up in Aspen the next day — there are lots of ski mountaineering races in the world, but there’s really nothing else like that.”
Even with the uncertainty surrounding this year’s race, many competitors are still training, motivated by the challenge and enduring love of the Grand Traverse.
Sumner said he’s learned in his training to focus less on the outcome and more on the experience itself.
“I think I’m a little more philosophical about it at this point,” he said. “I really enjoy the process. Just getting out in the mountains and doing hard things is satisfying all by itself.
“Like a lot of things in life,” he added, “if you don’t enjoy the journey and only focus on the finish line, you’re going to end up disappointed.”