Colorado avalanche educators warily eyeing declining numbers of fatalities despite increasing traffic

It’s been 22 winters since Colorado avalanche forecasters last made it to the end of February without investigating one fatality. 

Since last week’s storm slammed the West, nine skiers were killed in a devastating avalanche near North Lake Tahoe and three slides killed motorized backcountry travelers in Idaho and Utah. Prior to that storm, it had been longer than a month without a fatal avalanche in the U.S. So far this season, avalanches have killed 18 backcountry travelers in California, Idaho, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

Europe is tracking an extraordinarily deadly avalanche season, with slides claiming the lives of 105 backcountry travelers, mostly in the Alps, where the European Avalanche Warning Services has counted 30 people killed in France and 41 in Italy and Switzerland.

But in Colorado, where several feet of new snow in the last week buried a rotten, drought-stricken snowpack, triggering the largest avalanche cycle of the season with many huge slides ripping down several feet and running to valley floors, there have been no deaths. For the last three seasons, the annual number of people killed in avalanches in Colorado has fallen well below the long-term average of six or seven. 

What is happening in Colorado that seems to be reducing not just fatalities but the number of people involved in avalanches despite increased traffic in the snowy backcountry? 

That answer is complicated. But it starts with better education. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center has improved its forecasting program, with more experts tramping into snowy wilds to deliver more precise reports about dangers and hazards. And more people are paying attention to those forecasts.

“There are definitely avalanches being triggered for but, so far, nothing too serious in the backcountry and hopefully we are playing a part in that,” said Ethan Greene, the longtime head of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center on Sunday after several days of ardent avalanche warnings that backcountry travelers seemed to heed. “We have done a lot to make sure the information is easier to get and it’s more personalized in a way that makes it easier to use. We work really hard at that.”

50 years in Colorado’s backcountry 

Lou Dawson has been skiing in Colorado’s backcountry for more than 50 years. He’s seen explosive growth in the number of people seeking pristine powder in the state’s backcountry, maybe even doubling every four or five years over the last 20 years, he said. 

The Carbondale-based skier credits a number of factors when noting a largely flat or even declining number of fatal accidents despite exponential growth in skiers and motorized users in Colorado’s snowy mountains. First is education, with more people carrying avalanche safety equipment — a beacon, shovel and probe — and they appear more aware than ever of risks and hazards in avalanche terrain.

“It’s been such a huge progression in awareness,” said Dawson, whose memoir “Avalanche Dreams” details a half-century of adventures in the Rocky Mountains. 

Dawson also said improved technology plays a role in avalanche safety, with better-than-ever avalanche beacons and satellite-connected mapping apps — like Aspect Avy and On-X — helping travelers identify risky terrain in real time. And while not quite as universally recognized, Dawson sees wider skis helping skiers skim above dangerous layers, especially compared to the snow-probing skinny skis of yesteryear. 

“But if you are skiing slopes where the widths of your skis might save your life, you might have gone too far,” he said. “Really in general, if you are on a slope and talking about whether you might die or not, it might be time to reevaluate your sporting plan.”

Which is the essence of why the rate of avalanche incidents is not matching the growth in backcountry traffic. Skiers and snowmobilers are making better decisions. 

“People are getting more information than ever before and they are really applying it,” Dawson said. “Our backcountry skiing culture encourages expertise and skill, rather than blundering and bravado. And I think we are seeing that.”

“Any mistakes could be deadly”

It’s rare for the CAIC to issue “high” danger warnings — which is four out of five on the danger scale, just below the very uncommon “extreme.” And backcountry users tend to listen, as they did last week when danger spiked and incidents remained low. 

But as the danger ebbs this week and forecasters downshift to “considerable” and “moderate,” the threat of large and dangerous slides remains. Most avalanche incidents — including fatal slides — happen when the avalanche danger is rated considerable or moderate. The heavy snow falling in the last half of this week is actually spiking danger again as the dense blanket further stresses that persistent weak layer.

“The consequences for human-triggered potential are scary. You can easily trigger a slide on many slopes,” reads a CAIC Tuesday forecast for the central mountains, noting slides that could move as much as 4 feet of snow and “may gouge deeper as they gain momentum. Safe travel in backcountry terrain will require careful, very selective terrain selection. Any mistakes could be deadly.”

While the acute hazards of the new snow are easing, forecasters remain vigilant with forecasts that show a snowpack slowly bonding with lower layers but still susceptible to large slides that would be difficult to survive. 

CAIC forecasters fielded two reports of incidents in the last week with a slide in the Bear Creek drainage next to Telluride ski area partially burying a skier and a slide south of Bonita Peak near Silverton that caught a skier and snowboarder. 

So far this season, CAIC has counted 35 backcountry travelers caught in 31 avalanches, resulting in 11 burials and four injuries. Not surprisingly, considering this season’s paltry snow conditions, that is the smallest tally of avalanche incidents through February in the last decade.

There is a bit of just simple luck at play in these low numbers. 

The difference between a close call and a death in avalanche terrain can be a matter of inches. Greene and his team of avalanche experts across the state investigate every fatal accident. They also closely study those close calls. And, like every backcountry traveler, they each have had their own near misses with avalanches. 

“When there is an accident we all see how close we have come to very similar events. And it’s really hard to learn if you say ‘I would never do that.’ We need to look for the lessons in every event to help people gain experience without actually having that exact experience,” said Greene, who joined CAIC as director in 2005. “We really try to understand what brought people to that situation and not look for the faults but just try to understand their story.”