Disrupting what has been a quiet avalanche season, this week’s storms are spiking backcountry danger with high winds and feet of new snow burying a sketchy snowpack.
The Colorado Avalanche Information Center on Tuesday began warning backcountry travelers of the most destructive avalanches of the season coming this week.
“Most of the central mountains will get 1 to 2 feet of snow, with favored areas getting over 3 feet of snow by Friday morning,” reads the CAIC’s Tuesday avalanche warning forecast. “The slab from last week’s storm will allow more snow to pile up before the snowpack gets pushed past its tipping point, which it will sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on where you are.”
That tipping point will likely spike avalanche danger at “high” in the northern, central and southern mountain ranges, which is the second-highest level on the danger scale with natural and human-triggered avalanches “very likely.” Colorado’s increasingly well-informed backcountry travelers have shown deference to avalanche warnings in recent winters and avoided travel in avalanche-prone terrain when the danger scale turns red with high risks. CAIC is worried about the coming weeks as travelers return to slopes where the new snow is not expected to bond well with weak layers that have baked in dry, warm temperatures for most of February.
“It is easy and simple to stay safe during these periods of high (4 of 5) danger. Avoid avalanche terrain. It’s the tail end of these storms when the danger starts decreasing that people get killed,” the center’s forecast warns. “These weak layers are not going to heal anytime soon. Prepare to take a big step back this week and stay conservative as we come out of this storm later this week and into (the) weekend.”
So far this season, CAIC has counted 32 backcountry travelers caught in 29 avalanches, resulting in eight burials and three injuries. No one has died in avalanches this winter, although two backcountry skiers died in the San Juan and the Elk ranges after apparent medical emergencies.
Snowpack statewide is 55% below the long term average, setting up the worst winter in 50 years. The avalanche tally so far this season is, not surprisingly, also historically low for the middle of February.
- Through mid-February in the 2024-25 season, CAIC counted 48 travelers caught in 46 slides, resulting in 15 burials and three injuries. Three people — a solo powsurfer, a snowboarder and a solo skier were killed.
- Through mid-February in the 2023-24 season, CAIC counted 55 travelers caught in 42 slides, resulting in 26 burials and three injuries. Two men — a skier and a solo snowboarder — were killed that season.
- Through mid-February in the 2022-23 season, CAIC counted 46 travelers caught in 36 slides resulting in 18 burials that injured one skier. Four people — two snowmobilers, one skier and one snowboarder — were killed that season.
- Through mid-February in the 2021-22 season, CAIC counted 40 travelers caught in 34 slides resulting in 14 burials. Five people — one climber, two skiers, a solo snowboarder and three snowshoers — were killed that season.
- Through mid-February in the 2020-21 season, CAIC counted 54 travelers caught in 46 slides resulting in 24 burials and one injury. There were 12 people — nine skiers, one snowboarder and two snowmobilers — killed that season.
It is next to impossible to track the number of people who go into Colorado’s backcountry in winter, but it is very safe to say that traffic has grown exponentially in the last decade. Yet even with the growth, the state has seen four consecutive seasons of declining fatalities, with the number of people dying in avalanches falling well below a long-term average around six or seven a year.
There are so many factors that contribute to avalanches and those factors can change not just from mountain range to mountain range but vary between elevations and aspects. Risks on north-facing terrain above treeline can be totally different from northwestern-facing slopes below treeline, for example.
CAIC in the past four seasons has developed some of the nation’s most robust avalanche forecasting and awareness tools. Winter adventurers can click over to avalanche.state.co.us to check forecasts, access training tools and find free events to help kindle and sustain “avy savvy” in the state’s mountains.