Two recent polls show the 8th Congressional District race between Democrat Yadira Caraveo and Republican Gabe Evans is neck and neck as millions of dollars pour into the contest to try to persuade the chunk of undecided voters who will determine the outcome.
Caraveo, the district’s incumbent congresswoman, and Evans, a state representative, both had 44% of the vote in a survey of 525 likely voters conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 1. The poll, conducted by Emerson College Polling on behalf of KDVR/KWGN and The Hill, had a 4.2 percentage point credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error.
Twelve percent of those polled said they were undecided in the contest.
A second poll, conducted by Colorado Community Research, a Democratic firm, showed the race statistically tied, with Caraveo leading Evans with 46% of the vote to Evans’ 42%. The poll, conducted among 600 likely voters in the district from Sept. 20 to 25, had a 4.6 percentage point margin of error.
A race is considered a statistical tie when neither candidate leads by more than a poll’s margin of error. That means that Caraveo’s lead could be larger or that Evans could even have a narrow advantage.
Twelve percent of those polled by Colorado Community Research said they were undecided in the race.
The contest in the 8th District, which spans from Denver’s northeastern suburbs along U.S. 85 into Greeley, may decide which party controls Congress. As a result, millions of dollars are pouring into the race to try to persuade undecided voters and turn out supporters.
Caraveo won by roughly 1,600 votes in 2022. Some $20 million was spent by political groups on that contest.
OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan group that tracks political spending, reports that at least $5 million has been spent on the race so far this year. The number is likely higher as more spending is reported each day.
Fairshake PAC, a group that supports candidates who are open to the cryptocurrency economy, has spent about $2 million in support of Caraveo. She has received $1 million in help from the House Majority PAC, a Democratic group. She’s also getting assistance from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund.
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Mainstream Colorado Fund, a Democratic federal super PAC created this year whose donor or donors haven’t been made public yet, reported Sunday that it had spent another $121,000 in the district to help Caraveo. It has spent more than $400,000 in the district so far.
On the Republican side, Evans is getting help from the National Republican Congressional Committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund and America PAC. CLF is tied to Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, while America PAC is tied to billionaire Elon Musk.
Americans for Prosperity Action, which is tied to the national conservative political nonprofit Americans for Prosperity, is also spending gobs to help Evans.
The Emerson College poll showed that 43% of those polled have a favorable view of Caraveo, while 40% said they have an unfavorable view of her. Seventeen percent said they had never heard of Caraveo, a sizable share for an incumbent.
Meanwhile, 49% said they had a favorable view of Evans, while 33% said they had an unfavorable view of him and 18% said they had never heard of him.
Participants in the Emerson College poll said the economy is their top issue, followed by housing affordability, immigration, threats to democracy, crime and abortion access. That roughly mirrors what participants in the Colorado Community Research survey said were their top issues.
Election Day is Nov. 5. Colorado county clerks will begin mailing ballots to voters Oct. 11.