In 2012, the Colorado legislature passed SB 19-199 or Colorado Read Act that focuses on early literacy development for all students. The Read Act was strengthened in 2019 by focusing on reading instruction supported by reading research or what is referred to as the Science of Reading. These were the right steps for the state, but the results are wrong. In fact, the results should concern every citizen, educational leader across the preK-16 landscape, and business in the state that has a vested interest in our children’s reading and writing development and their futures.
The Colorado Department of Education proposed amendments to the Read Act in 2019 after assessing that the state had only seen a 2% increase after six years in third-grade students meeting or exceeding expectations of the Colorado Measure of Academic Success test in English language arts. More concerning is the mere 1% reduction in the number of students identified with significant reading problems. In 2019, 16%, or 41,000 children, were identified with a significant reading deficiency.
The rate of growth in our state called for further examination. I asked the question: How long will it take to achieve reading level for proficiency for 70%, 80% and 90% of Colorado fourth- and eighth-grade students based on the three-year average rate of growth? The numbers I calculated are shocking, particularly for students with Individualized Education Plans (IEPs) or identified for Special Education services.
From 2016-19, the range of reading proficiency for fourth-grade students was 43.7% to 47.5%, according to the Colorado Department of Education. The range of reading proficiency for eighth-grade students was 41.6% to 46.9%. Based on my calculations, the three-year average percentage growth rate of reading proficiency was 1.27% for fourth-grade students without IEPs and 1.78% for eighth-grade students without IEPs.
At this rate, it will take 53 years to have 70%, 76 years to have 80% and 100 years to have 90% of fourth-grade students without IEPs to read proficiently in Colorado. For eighth-grade students without IEPs, it will take 38 years to have 70%, 55 years to have 80%, and 72 years to have 90% reading proficiently in Colorado.
The data for students with IEPs are more shocking. The 2016-19 range of reading proficiency for fourth-grade students with IEPs was 8.1% to 10.4%. The range of reading proficiency for eighth-grade students was 5.9% to 7.2%. My calculations find the three-year average percentage growth rate of reading proficiency was 2.25% for fourth-grade students with IEPs and a mere 0.43% for eighth-grade students with IEPs.
At this rate, it will take 79 years to have 70%, 92 years to have 80%, and 106 years to have 90% of Colorado fourth-grade students with IEPs to read proficiently. For eighth-grade students with IEP plans, it will take 438 years to have 70% reading proficiently, 507 years to have 80%, and 577 years to reach 90%.
These calculations suggest that many of the state’s students with IEPs will never achieve reading proficiency. The unimaginable number of years to have 70% of students with IEPs to read proficiently led me to calculate the number of years to achieve 20% proficiency for students with IEPs.
It was 12 years for fourth-grade students and 89 years for eighth-graders, based on the three-year average rate of growth. Yes, a whooping 89 years to have 20% of eighth-grade students read proficiently.
The data and calculations reported above are all pre-pandemic. Unfortunately, the number of newly identified students with significant reading difficulties is increasing in Colorado.
In 2022, there were more than 25,000 newly identified K-3 students with reading difficulties, according to the 2023 annual report on the Read Act. This increase coupled with the three-year average slow growth rate indicates that the state must expand its reading focus beyond grades K-3. The state will benefit from a comprehensive preK-12 reading effort.
Similar to other states that have established reading research centers in the past 20 years, Colorado should create a reading research center in collaboration with its universities. The Tennessee, Iowa and Florida research centers are working with their state departments of education and policymakers to provide research and technical support to impact policy and practices to improve student literacy outcomes from birth through adulthood. Their results are promising.
Our state’s reading challenges are larger than K-3. It is hard to be a Coloradan and having to digest that it may take a quarter-century to a century or more to achieve reading proficiency for students with and without IEPs. Moreover, it is more frightening to tell eight out of 10 students with IEPs that the likelihood of you becoming a proficient reader in Colorado is never.
Alfred W. Tatum is a literacy researcher and professor at Metropolitan State University of Denver and president-elect of the Literacy Research Association.
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